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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (39040)	11/5/1997 6:46:00 PM
From: William Hunt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

JOHN FOWLER- THIS MIGHT EXPLAIN THE ASIAN IMPACT ON EARNINGS PLUS WHAT ANDY MIGHT SPEAK ABOUT ON FRIDAY : Intel - Asian Currency Heartburn May Hinder Growth 08:16am EST 5-Nov-97 Asian currency crisis may hinder growth; estimates at risk: Analysts believe continued deterioration in Asian currencies could hold 4Q97 PC shipments flat with 3Q97 in Asia (including Japan). Flat growth in Asia coupled with some channel inventory clearing and the ongoing move to build-to-order (BTO) could drive flat or possibly down CPU unit shipments for Intel. Recent checks with PC OEMs including Acer and IBM, as well as analysts recent trip to Korea, indicate Asian PC growth has slowed to a 10% annual rate due to currency problems in most countries except China, which is still growing by as much as 60%. While analysts' believe ASPs are running ahead of analysts' $215 estimate, flat units would be about 1 million shy of analysts' 23 million unit estimate and shave roughly $130 million from analysts' $6.5 billion revenue estimate and $0.05-0.07 from estimate with margin impact. 1998 effects of currency impact tough to gauge but 4Q97 provides an idea: While it is difficult to gauge the depth and duration of the currency impact, analysts thought it might be useful to use 4Q97 as an example in assessing the impact to 1998. If 1998 growth slows to 10% versus current estimates of 20%, as appears to be the case in 4Q97, it would cost INTC about 1.5 million units, which is roughly $350 million and $0.10 in EPS. However, an Asian growth slowdown of 10 percentage points or less in 1998 could be offset by growth from the rest of the world since every 1% of additional growth outside Asia makes up for roughly 3% lower growth in Asia, which is quite doable for INTC. Stay tuned for Intel's analyst meeting: INTC will host an analyst meeting later this week (11/7/97). While the company can't possibly provide a long-range forecast on the impact of Asian currencies, it should be able to provide a better indication of near-term business conditions including any stimulative effects of recent price cuts that could offset problems in Asia. Analysts also believe the company will review the Pentium II transition, processors targeting each end market, the sub-$1,000 PC segment and process roadmaps. While analysts don't expect any 1998 capital spending forecasts to come from the meeting, analysts' still believe 1998 capital spending to be flat to up with analysts' current $4.2-4.3 billion estimate for 1997. BEST WISHES BILL

To: Joe NYC who wrote (39040)	11/5/1997 8:16:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 186894

What's funny is that a year ago a 200 Mhz machine was kick a$$. Now it's a toy with training wheels...what a laugh. I don't know about everyone else but my software hasn't changed that much has yours? Jim