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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dvdw© who wrote (47527)	4/22/2010 4:20:06 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 95427

Yes, that's true. There is no guarantee, but I can approximate my costs, and limit my risk. The total of my shorts is a small fraction of my long positions, and a small fraction of my total portfolio, so my total portfolio goes up if the market goes up. Theoretically, my long positions (like AMAT) could go to zero, and my short positions (like KLIC) go to infinity, but I think the odds of that are very small. Worst case, I could hold KLIC till the next semi-equip downcycle, when I'm sure it will trough way below today's price. It always has before. I've been discussing the solar stocks here Subject 50902 and I'm comfortable that: 1. there is massive overcapacity in solar, and more capacity still being added. Supply/demand in solar won't come into balance (best-case scenario) before 2012. 2. inventories are rising, margins are falling, and a lot of high-cost producers are beginning to have trouble servicing their debt. 3. all the non-Chinese producers, with the exception of FSLR, are in trouble.