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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: data_rox who wrote (91106)	4/23/2010 2:52:45 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197227

there is some good data from Morgan regarding 3G subscribers and penetration rates in this preso - starting page 25 It is definitely still early in the 3G game if you measure it by subscribers. Those companies that will benefit from the increased penetration of 3G still have a ways to go....mostly companies that provide services that will benefit from the 3G connection (like Google or app developers). Q has attempted to get into services but has very little to show for its efforts. Slacker

To: data_rox who wrote (91106)	4/23/2010 3:56:14 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197227

DR, re: Growth potential – 3G / QCOM- Thanks for re-introducing that massive Morgan Stanley Research paper. There’s an even larger version (~450 pages) available for download that I’ve referenced in several of my QCOM growth posts. i.e.>>>>>> EPS growth should be much better than 12%, at least 15% IMO with- (per Morgan Stanley ) ……+ 3G Device sales ramping – 2010 inflection point / 5 year CAGR 25% ……+ Netbooks ramping- 32% CAGR ……+ Internet tablets ramping- 117% CAGR ……+ Embedded other devices ramping- 64% CAGR ……+ 3G enabled smartphones ramping- 48% CAGR ……+ WiFi enabled smartphones ramping- 57% CAGR ……+ M2M module market ramping- *- 57% CAGR ……….(Berg Insight – Euro market module market- ’09 @ 2.3M – ’14 @22M) BoonDoogler posted a link to Don Dodge’s blog a while back (predictions for the 2010 and next decade) using some info from that same MS report ”Don Dodge says the next wave of mobile devices will number 10 billion. That wave is upon us. ..* Something to think about for those who think there’s little / no more wind left in QCOM’s sails. dondodge.typepad.com

To: data_rox who wrote (91106)	4/23/2010 9:48:24 PM
From: Jim Mullens	1 Recommendation Respond to of 197227

DR, re: good data from Morgan Stanley #2- Something more to think about for the QCOM slow growthers-- During the CC Q&A, Arnab Chanda - Roth Capital asked about new QCT Products / Incremental Revenue streams Steve M gave a low key response re: WiFi (Bluetooth / Femto cells) --- (per SeakingAlpha’s translation)—It’s being sold today as a stand-alone devise in very small quantities. It will eventually become a feature that goes into our smart phones product portfolio” WiFi Chips I’ve posted on this before, but this time using Morgan Stanley’s WiFi device projections- ……………………………………2009…….2013 Bluetooth chips……… …..….…387M……1,039M (smartphones only -87M , 526M) QCOM % share……………………0%.........25% QCOM units…………………………………..260M ASP……………………………………………$4 Revenue………………………………......$1,040M Bluetooth chips (I never posted on bluetooth chip potential revenue) ……………………………………2009…….2013 Bluetooth chips- …..….…………1.5B……..2.5B QCOM % share……………………0%.........25% QCOM units………………………10M?……625M ASP……………………………………………..$2 Revenue………………………………......$1,250M A billion here, a billion there / it starts to add up! >>>>>>>>>>>> Arnab Chanda - Roth Capital Thank you. Can you talk a little bit about your QCT business kind of qualitatively. When do you expect to see revenues from some of the non-cellular technology that you are looking at. Like thicker cells or things like Wi-Fi or other wireless technologies. Derek Aberle ( Steve M) On the first question about QCT and some of the non-traditional products I will call them, they probably fall in a phases, because right now we are shipping bluetooth in the tens of millions of units a year. It’s a growing business that we have lowered ASP obviously than the core MSM business, but they are progressing well. WiFi is behind. It’s being sold today as a stand-alone devise in very small quantities. It will eventually become a feature that goes into our smart phones product portfolio. And then on the femto cell side we are really in the process now of first engineering samples this year. We won’t see revenue on that for at least twelve months from now.