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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (91112)	4/23/2010 7:25:30 PM
From: qinvestor	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197200

I think your way of looking at the valuation is very reasonable. Everyone who owns QC should be looking at the real valuation of this company. It is important to understand the S-Curve and I think everyone on this thread can come to some very logical conclusions as to what is appropriate growth rate of the QCOM.. The valuation of QUALCOMM is completely dependent on the growth rate of dividends to investors. Right now, investors receive about $.75 / yr in dividends. What is relevant for the valuation is the long term growth rate of the dividends and the appropriate discount to apply to those dividends? What concerns me are the competing curves... While the market is getting larger, the margins are getting thinner with both core businesses, QTL and QCT. The rates at which these margins are getting thinner seem to be outpacing the growth of the market... QTL has to increasingly trade royalties for access for other technologies (ie, 4G)... I wonder if it will be sustainable in the long run to have a net positive royalty. All the new technologies / methods are adopted in standards committees... None of the players get way ahead of each other as the wrestle with each other over whose IPR will be integrated into future standards which drive the communications businesses. This is very different from other markets in which standards play a much smaller role or from the time when IJ completely outmanuevered the entire industry. As far as QCT goes, it also has some pretty big challenges ahead of it. It is a chip company that has to compete against the crowd. QCT runs with much more overhead than many other competitors (ie Broadcom), because they try to service all markets. QCT's competitors cherry pick all the profitable, low hanging niches and it seems like in the long run, it is hard to play with the full service model. Think of what point to point airlines did to the hub and spoke carriers. I too am sitting on the sidelines, but I still like QCOM at the right price...