To: Chris Nevil who wrote (240 ) 11/6/1997 6:37:00 PM From: Coha Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 670
Chris - Good comments and I don't necessarily dispute your arguments for bailing if you desire. Good call also on the part of the last poster in regards to the tax loss strategy, the only risk there being if for some reason they do find a partner in the coming 7 weeks you may find a little move in the stock but you would likely not be the only one employing the old tax loss strategy and re-buy (i.e. the ever so popular Jan, now sometimes Dec. effect!). I do want to say a few things though. The first is in regards to the COB selling. Have you ever met Joe Ashley? Before you make any significant decisions regarding your position here based on that evidence, I suggest you talk to some people who know him. I have calmed down somewhat from my reaction when I found he was selling again, and the bottom line is this is a man beyond retirement age, who has been removed from day to day management of the company by a man who has dramatically changed the direction of "his" company. Although I take umbrage with the selling due to wall st. *perception* of it and what it does to the stock price, I am not even slightly concerned that it *means* anything. This is my own take based on my own limited experience, but enough for me to make a comfortable decision. To your points regarding the operating health of the organization. In a nutshell: yes, the changes are dramatic. But the choice was to remain a development stage biotech and try to win Phase III on IB or Tricomin and FDA approval on the limited $'s left. It was a strategic decision to change the personality of the company made by Clifford and one that may or may not work. What attracted me to the stock was/is the valuation (#1), coupled with the potential for a turnaround. The risk/return is only put into balance with that valuation IMO. I can find you right now biotech companies without a Phase III product trading at 4 to 5 times book. That is just plum insane to me. Here we have products FDA approved and being sold trading at about .75 book. Now granted, we are no longer in the "drug" business, but we are selling product with a clear niche focus. I just want to re-iterate that this is in no way a gimme. I think I made an effort in my comments to note that comments from any company need to be categorized as such. You will not hear me pounding the table on it. Risk/return. They quite possibly may not make it out alive. If they do though, and I think their chances given the current strategy decent, the turnaround from here will quite likely be significant. But the reason why we trade here at these levels is the market deams it a hopeless cause. But before you bail on this one, just make sure it is for the right reasons, not that wall st. has blasted it due to their perceptions of what insider selling means or that small companies don't survive. They do if they find the right niche. Apologies for the length, all the best in your decision, Coha