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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (47574)	4/24/2010 10:46:52 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

Amateur Investors Weekend Market Analysis (4/24/10) amateur-investor.net I haven't talked about Inflation Adjusted Charts in several months however it's probably a good idea to take a look back at them. As I mentioned several months ago it the S&P 500 found support at 667 in March of 2009. Notice in the Inflation Adjusted Chart the S&P 500 found support at its previous Secular Bull Market High made in the late 1960's near 670. Meanwhile the Inflation Adjusted Chart of the S&P 500 is exhibiting three potential longer term patterns. The bullish scenario is that the entire move down from the early 2000 high to the March 2009 low was a completed ABC type correction and the end of the Secular Bear Market. Furthermore the rally from the March 2009 low is Wave 1 of 5 of the next "Great Secular Bull Market". Personally I don't believe this scenario however to be fair and unbiased I have mentioned it as a possibility. Meanwhile the first Bearish Scenario is that the entire move down from the early 2000 high to the March 2009 low was just Wave A while the rally from the March 2009 is Wave B of a larger ABC type correction. Furthermore once the current B Wave ends then an elongated C Wave would follow with a potential retest of the March 2009 low at some point several years from now. Keep in mind we saw a similar pattern from the late 1960's through the mid 1970's as the B wave completed in 1976 which was then followed by the C Wave which didn't bottom until 1982. The third pattern which would end up being the most bearish of all is that we are seeing a Broadening Descending Wedge pattern develop which would be bullish over the next year or so but turn into a complete disaster in the longer term. In this scenario we are currently exhibiting Wave 4 which would eventually rally back to the top of the downward channel possibly around 1400 as an "abc" type affair. Meanwhile once Wave 4 completes then Wave 5 would occur with a drop down to the bottom of the longer term descending channel which would takes us well below the March 2009 low at some point way in the future. Keep in mind all of these patterns are based on Inflation Adjusted Charts which may end up looking different than conventional charts depending on how bad Inflation is in the future.