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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kech who wrote (91150)	4/25/2010 12:58:52 PM
From: TuxedoMask	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197214

When I invest in QCOM or any other company, I try to develop a thesis or a simple reason to own. I treat it as if I am an owner buying a business. I need to explain to my kids in the most simplistic term why I would like to own a company. I learned this from Peter Lynch's various books. Peter Lynch who has similar disliked for technology as Buffet. He, however mentioned Microsoft as a company one can invest. The simplest reason for owning Microsoft is that for every PC sold, Microsoft collect some $$ at close to 100% margin. You don't need to know what is an OS/CPU/RAM. An elementary school kid would know what it meant by collecting $$ for every PC sold and almost 100% go to the bottom line and invest accordingly. As of now, PC has happened...The industry is matured and being displaced (not entirely of course) by mobile devices. Unless window mobile 7 take over the world similar to the PC industry, Microsoft will follow the path of IBM. You will collect your dividend but no longer a growth company. Microsoft/QCOM announced dividend and haven't growth since is no co-incident. Warren won't buy tech is because as he claim he doesn't understand technology. Another reason is, I believe, through out history, technology change and get displaced. In order for company to move as fast as the changes in technology, it has to keep investing the earned $$$. The investment of that $$ into other venture rarely pan out. You are paying a premium for the growth yet the ROI of the retain earning are terrible. RCA,KODAK,XEROX, IBM mainframe, DEC's minicomputer..Now Microsoft and Intel. Microsoft is plowing billion into Online MSN, Win Mobile, XBOX, ZUNE...because Window/Office are cash cow that can be disrupted. The disruption is occurring now with Apple's Iphone/Ipad and Google DOC app. Microsoft end up doing free online version of Office. Every new PC is now come pre-installed with Microsoft Work for free to both manufacturer and consumer. Bill Gate told Buffet back when they were touring together. Microsoft, with its monopolistic share of PC, can still be disrupted. Microsoft understand where it need to go and invest accordingly. However, its ROI on those investment $$$ is abysmal compare to its cash cow OS/Office. Intel is trying very hard to build its chip as a platform, a combo of CPU/GPU, to lock out its competitor. Its licensing dispute with Nvidia is an example of this. Apple got stuck with core 2 duo for its recent 13" macbook pro update due to this conflict. This is an example of Intel looking out for self-interest instead of customer. QCOM is trying to do it with its snapdragon and I give kudo to management for the foresight to buy gps/wifi and other tech related company.. But, please no more FLO type of investment...The concept of buying another gadget just to watch TV doesn't make sense...Please move on...May be give away the FLO function by building it into every chip Qcom sell. Allow a separate user activate subscription w/o going through carrier like Apple with its Itunes/App Store. MIRASOL.....I treat it as venture capitalist money that a company need to invest..it may blow up and it may turn into gold. Time will tell...but please hurry will ya??? Kindle on mirasol would be thumb up......but damn the Ipad/HPslate/...... Unless Qcom can convince Apple to do IPAD on mirasol... QCOM is almost a replica of Microsoft of the 90. When I recommend QCOM to my friend, I don't explain what CDMA and GSM is. Heck I don't understand it well myself and I am a computer engineer. I don't explain 2G or 3G.. I told them, for every cell phone sold in the future generation, QCOM will collect a small amount of $$ similar to Microsoft. For QCOM which was selling less than 10 billion $$ at that time, it has the potential to growth beyond 100 billions. Would you like to jump on this opportunity??? QCOM as of today, 3G has happened/is happening and Smartphone, thanks to Apple, is exploding. Yet QCOM is struggling to print $$$. I've just compared QCOM with BRCM's 5 years chart on yahoo and BRCM beat QCOM. I say damn........ Question for the board... What's your thesis for owning QCOM 3-5 years out and your audience is the elementary school kids.