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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waitwatchwander who wrote (91175)	4/26/2010 10:34:10 AM
From: matherandlowell	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197214

" What I see in this graphic is the industry moving forward with a piece of the royalty pie having been removed." I think that this is a key point and I agree that Engineer's experience and expertise ranks him among the most the knowledgeable contributors here. My earlier post notwithstanding, there are some amazingly knowledgeable contributors to this board. The question is whether a piece of the royalty pie has been removed. Your argument that a piece has been removed implies that QCOM will not derive any benefit from the success of Apple. You might be right but I find this possibility to be almost inconceivable. My understanding is that the manufacturer of the iPhone pays Apple's contribution to the QCOM royalty stream. Anything less than that would almost surely result in some kind of legal injunction on the sale of the product. Even with this contribution, QCOM might still be owed a very considerable amount from Apple but I don't know the terms of a QCOM license-- it is possible that Apple has a license but has not yet disclosed that they do. It is hard to believe that QCOM is giving away the store but because of nondisclosure agreements, we have no way to know what consideration QCOM is currently getting from Apple. Has a piece of the royalty pie really been removed? Has QCOM really developed essentially all of 3G and 4G technology and then given it to another company for no compensation? I doubt it. The thing that Apple did that QCOM seems not to have done is to take a piece of the service revenue stream. Perhaps with some new IP (say with the Mirasol screen) the company could request a small percentage of the monthly service fees the new product will earn. QCOM deserves such compensation much more than does Apple. I think that BREW might incorporate such a compensation. Thanks again for your thoughts. j.

To: waitwatchwander who wrote (91175)	4/26/2010 10:50:06 AM
From: TuxedoMask	2 Recommendations Respond to of 197214

One of the best post, viewing from the top. We all know what QCOM story is and don't need the cheer leading. We have Jim Muellens provides many great articles/analyst report and statistics. What we need to find is the opposing view, the bumps that can wreck the QCOM train. Imagine yourself as a NOK holder in 1999..Would you continue to ride the NOK train while it's gaining market share in GSM or would you hop on to the QCOM express as we move from GSM->CDMA... As we move forward...CDMA->LTE, the cell technology may not matter as much. The wintel pc is no longer the dominating force thanks to the internet. The monopoly distribution power of Microsoft disappeared. Wireless internet will do the same to LTE and QCOM thanks to Apple(Yes I ride the Apple train)..Or I should say, the content of the wireless internet make the underlying technology irrelevance. This is one of the reason I said, QCOM make a strategic mistake of selling both infrastructure and handset. It won't become the Intel-Microsoft of mobile. That title belongs to Apple for now, just in different form. The next one to watch out for is Google... Google's next frontier is to own the network (not just the wireless type), device, content (search), all the underlying technology of the mobile eco-system. Iphone arrived in 2007 and take the smartphone market by storm and wreck every incumbent handset maker... What does that mean to QCOM and the cell phone industry??? Two words..."Vertical integration". vertical integration is winning and the trend, I afraid, is accelerating... Here is one worrying thought for me if I have a big chunk of QCOM. androidandme.com seems to indicate Samsung is using its hummingbird chip and not snapdragon. We know Samsung has been trying to do its own chip for a long time. Sooner or later it will. With the success of Iphone, perhaps accelerating its plan. Samsung is a big QCOM customer... Another company we need to follow very closely is Google. As Android catch on, nothing prevent Google from slowly close source the more advance Android feature to keep it for themselves. How come Google doesn't open source Google map turn by turn?? Google worked exclusively with HTC for Nexus one with Android 2.1, locked out motorola and the rest of the android partner for a few months.. It slowly releases Android's latest feature to the open source community as it markets Nexus one. Google is buying a chip company...What's its plan? What's that got to do with QCOM?? Will it use snapdragon down the road?? Qualcomm spend a few hundreds million to develop snapdragon..that's chump change in Google's eye... Eric Schmidt's priority one right now is mobile....Something to keep a very close eye on... Microsoft...Where is it going???? mediatek.com What happen to our buddy in the north??? QCOM used to work with Msft...what's happening now??...Is QCOM on the Mobile 7 train??? Any body know?? On the top food chain, Apple is eating everybody's lunch. Samsung is migrating toward its own chip for top of the line phone and barely mention its chip. At the bottom, Mediatek and Microsoft is in bed working to spread its mobile software and driving phone price to the floor. If I recall correctly, GSM phone is selling for 20-30 bucks.....who make money for selling at such price??? oh..it helps lift many Chinese out of poverty to buy Iphone???... NOK make close to nothing having close to 40% market share....No wonder Buffet doesn't want to touch technology... Ever thinking about coke as technology w/o an expiration date? No need to spend billion defending it... No need for "New Coke". Who said Buffet don't buy tech??? Rome is being attacked...The question is, can QCOM management handle the pressure...Can management handle what's coming... I enjoy reading the board to keep abreast of the wireless industry. I appreciated many valuable nugget scatter by Jim Muellens, engineers among others. Recently, my kids start questioning about my investments so I begin to think about writing down my thought. The timing of my post has nothing to do with recent earning announcement which isn't really as bad as it look..It's just that the street doesn't like yo-yo like guidance..I know I don't... I am no Bull nor Bear....QCOM had made me ton of $$ and I would love to see it thrives...But QCOM, no matter what, is still a stock certificate...and it's my money not QCOM's management...I don't recommend QCOM to people long ago..especially, after the BRCM incident.....

To: waitwatchwander who wrote (91175)	4/26/2010 12:19:39 PM
From: Jim Mullens	1 Recommendation Respond to of 197214

Defunct, Re: Pie slices (bigger / smaller) Around the time of the Nokia affair, Apple appeared on the scene and has steadily moved forward ever since. What I see in this graphic is the industry moving forward with a piece of the royalty pie having been removed. You are right that the market is poised for another run but it will be with Qualcomm collecting a smaller piece of the pie. Our decline on that front is tied up with the arrival of Apple (see blue slice). My educated guess (per Q’s comments that it does collect royalty from the 3g iPhone ) is that the divergence of royalty revenue from total device revenue is mainly due to lower royalty rates negotiated with NOK, Samsung, and others. Prior to the new NOK license rate were in the neighborhood of 4.3- 4.4%. Subsequent to the new license (fy07) they’ve be running in the mid to low 3% range.