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To: Rarebird who wrote (5625)	4/26/2010 8:41:29 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 26251

I'm selling into this rally now. No leverage, though. It's hard to pick the top, but I think this whole stock market rally was artificial and driven by Fed printing, which now subsided. There is not enough money out there to support both enormous government spending and the bull market.

To: Rarebird who wrote (5625)	4/26/2010 11:25:24 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26251

Russ, great post, this all leads to global war centered in Europe; there is no other way out... And yes; it will be good for the dollar; but really; the world will be so much different after does it matter... So few really see the bigger picture; you do; great work as always. It makes me sad when I look at my young boys knowing what is to come; they will live in a different world. Much less populated if they survive! Just have so much hope we can avoid the war; but with debt levels so high; tensions so high...is there any other out? The debt is also very high in European Emerging Nations; no one talks about Romania or the Eastern Bloc nations...some have energy; many do not. The Western Leaders will use the war to wash their hands of blame and again the bankers will make a fortune off it. It will allow the Oil and Drug Cartel run world to consolidate power towards a global dictatorship. It is all planned; do not think otherwise for a moment, they will all hunker down in safe havens in the So. Hemisphere for a decade or so to let the fallout die down... Fallout biological and nuclear based. I expect big swaths of Europe to be empty for decades... We have a very small window of chance to not see this destiny. West

To: Rarebird who wrote (5625)	5/2/2010 12:14:12 AM
From: Wildstar	Respond to of 26251

My thoughts travel back-and-forth on deflation vs inflation. Fundamentally, the problem is too much debt, and the governments of the world are, as you said, trying to pay off that debt with even more debt. The final result, however long it takes, has to be default, even if that default is a world-wide default. That is, by definition, deflation. The super-duper final end-all resolution will be a massive deflation. The inflationist skeptic can respond to this argument as follows: "Deflation? Have you seen the last 70 years of history? The dollar has devalued by 97%. When exactly do you expect this deflation to happen and how? In the fiat currency era, governments can simply print money. It has never shown much control in how much it prints, so hyperinflation is our future." The deflationist response might be as follows: "Sure, inflation has been the norm for the last 70 years. But the ultimate contrarian is the one who believe that even the longest of trends fail eventually. That 70 years of inflation is a property of the current worldwide banking/fiat currency system, and that system is what will fail eventually." So what is the prudent investor to do? Invest in gold for the coming hyperinflation, or raise cash for the coming deflation? I see inflation as a monetary phenomenon but hyperinflation as a psychological phenomenon when people lose faith in the currency. Can deflation co-exist with hyperinflation?