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Technology Stocks : Gateway (GTW) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Lempel who wrote (4583)	11/5/1997 9:35:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 8002

>>However, analysts don't just bust out with estimates of $2.00 in earnings for next year for no reason.<< brian, i remember hearing about a study that said analysts are an average of 50% or more off in their eatimates. one 1996 estimates for mu was $17 by one dope in 1995. the stock went lower than his eps estimate. more recently, tom kurlack, merryl lynches #1 semi analyst, was touting mu up to $60 even though he knew the asp was going through the floor. he also had ridiculous estimates for 1998. well, he sold and then lowered his estimates 75% ;-) analists have a reason for estimates - to make money. tom hurlcrap, as i affectionately call him, knew his estimates were ridiculous but he wanted to sell at a higher price. once he did that he had no need for big estimates and lowered them. of course, many analists are just plain dumb. they try in good faith, but just don't get it. the anlists were wrong to the upside the last three qs. even after gtw warned them and the revised lower, they were still off by quite a bit. let's get this straight. you mean to tell me you don't see the shear folly of missing 3 straight qs to the upside - and during the last q they had 2 tries - and then putting your faith in next YEAR'S estimate? my goodness! the analists original estimate for this last q was off by around 800%. i'm not misleading at all. i make sense. you just refuse to listen to the facts. >>You see, you're talking out of both sides of your mouth. You say GTW needs a 1K PC but then you bitch about how ASP is going to hell. It's one or the other.!<< it's both. low asps hurt gtw b/c their mfg sucks. low sales growth for high asps hurt gtw. i make perfect sense. i'm talking a lot b/c bulls get manically involved with their beloveds and don't listen. >>How do you think DELL has been able to keep their ASP so high? It sure isn't because of all those sub $1000 pcs they're selling<< dell sells a lot more to the corporate customer. i believe they sell workstations, too. does gtw? dell offers many more options and are much more successful due to the fact that they are eating gtw for lunch. my point is cogent and stands. btw, dell is making money ;-) >>My point is that fundamentals are improving. The 2Q problem was not fully resolved by 3Q, and they ended up taking some charges to fix things up. Things get better from here.<< maybe slightly. when you post a loss then getting better isn't saying much. i'm talking about a loss that excludes the extraordinary acquisition items but does include their inventory debacle which is directly related to their management team and their decisions. my friend, they lost money. dell and cpq must grow units 50% a year to support their stock prices. they will do this at the expense of the pps, apples, gtws, mueis and all the other weak sisters in this industry. the numbers were dissected - but they were gory and you probably ignored it as just something else you didn't want to hear. >>And this stuff you picked up on "In like lamb, out like a lion" is just crap. They are talking about demand for their products. Come on now people, demand has been pretty strong here! << your right. they sure weren't talking about profits ;-) it was crap. demand for salt is much higher than gtw units. should we all invest in morton? demand is meaningless, in and of itself. for an exec to make such a meaningless statement leads me to believe that things are really, really bad. there is nothing good that is meaningfull so he drops a meaningless piece of crap for the masses to absorb. thanks a lot, waitterooni... supply and demand are meaningful. supply is growing faster than demand. period. i don't care what demand is as long as my longs are growing earnings. the minute they tout demand being great when earnings go negative is the day i tear them apart. don't insult the bulls' intelligence - albeit, this is awful hard to do sometimes ;-) >>Is cracking on GTW's cow boxes the worst you can offer? No corporate marketting? Sure. What facts do you base this on? Certainly you can't expect them to post huge profuts from the division which they've only focused on for 1 quarter? Wouldn't you agree that this holds the potential for greater upside suprise, as large amounts of corporate revenue aren't really factored into future estimates?<< so they've focused on corporations for 1 q. wow, they are exceptionally quick on the uptake, aren't they? always invest in great management with vision - not 20/20 hindsight ;-) they won't get large amounts of corporate business as most corporations have relationships with other businesses. businesses that offer MUCH, MCUH MORE FOR MUCH, MUCH LESS. >>I'm here to discuss the facts. I contribute to SI so I can get information. When I go to various threads for research, I hope to find real info, not falsities like you post. I'll still read the thread and comment when things get out of hand. If anyone really wants to discuss GTW, they can mail me at lempel@n-jcenter.com<< brian, all my historical statements are facts. gtw lost money last q w/o the acquisition expense. they made pennies if you don't include the results of poor inventory management - these same jokers will be running thus company going forward. their unit growth is 40% less than cpq's unit growth. gtw has missed estimates 3 straight qs. the analists have been really wrong 4 times in those three qs. just b/c you don't want to hear reality and call it false doesn't make it so, my friend. go ahead, invest your dough in gtw. buy a lot at these prices. lessons are much better learned when the cost is high. btw, post on this thread. all discussion is good. no need to take your marbles and go home. fight for what you believe in. we can disagree and share the same thread. it is what makes a market and how i make my money ;-) btw, i'm early. the bulls don't realize the cliff ahead so i'm used to catching slack from them. some dude on the mu thread was saying i was wasting bandwidth by telling him mu was in trouble. i'll bet he wishes he had his 22 points back ;-)