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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (245772)	4/27/2010 12:51:53 PM
From: John Chen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

" There is a time and place for everything " Hello, President Mao. AWESOME.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (245772)	4/27/2010 1:15:40 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

The political arena was a little more unsettled in 1932 than it is today. 1932 was only 15-years removed from the Russian Revolution, and socialism, fascism, and communism were marching as alternatives to established European governments that offered very little in the way of social safety nets. I think the rise of socialism in the 1930's forced the hand of the Democrats to co-op many of the policies of the socialists in order to keep them from gaining strength. This was a popular alternative to Andrew Mellon's policies under Hoover, which were to liquidate business, liquidate labor, and liquidate farms. We saw something similar in the Nixon and Ford administrations when the EPA, Clean Air Act, and other progressive Deomcrat policies were adopted as result of a groundswell of support for new policies in these areas. The big question today is what alternatives will emerge now that the social safety nets are nearing the end of the line? Since we're broke and the budget is busted, logic suggests fascism and socialism would have a hard time gaining support. My models suggest a 2-term Republican is elected in 2012 (the same models in 2006 suggested Barack Obama as the 2008 winner and a 1-term president). I think odds are greater than ever before we may see a sovereign debt default by the United States in that 2nd term around the year 2017. If that happens, it would set the table for long and sustained economic growth for 20-years after that. We'll see how it plays out.