SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: nigel bates who wrote (73178)4/29/2010 4:07:27 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 149317
 
No, I was referring to the various 4% shifts in share of vote which 538 analyses.

I think such large shifts are now unlikely, with the possible exception of a collapse in the Labour vote.


If the Labour vote collapses, wouldn't that mean a significant shift to either the Lib Dems or the Tories?



To: nigel bates who wrote (73178)5/1/2010 4:07:39 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 149317
 
I know this a bit OT but I found this review of the candidates in UK's prime ministerial race to be interesting. In looking at the photo of Brown from when he was young, I am impressed he has gotten as high as he has........given American superficiality, I don't think he would have done as well here. What's your take on the American view of this race........or at least the NY Time's view? Just curious.

In the British Election, It’s Posh, Posher, Poshest

By SARAH LYALL
Published: April 30, 2010


A CLERGYMAN'S SON Gordon Brown at Edinburgh University in 1975.

LONDON — Typically, encounters between British prime ministers and their political enemies here are immature exercises in name-calling in front of baying rows of overstimulated legislators in the weekly contest known as prime minister’s questions.

The televised debates among the three men competing to run the country after next week’s election were meant to provide a corrective to that, replacing the histrionics with gravity and purpose. But their main effect, it seems, has been not to get people thinking about issues so much as to accelerate a different trend entirely — the move to an American-style obsession with personality politics.

What the leaders look like, what they sound like, how sincere they seem, how sweaty they are, how often they smile, how their wives dress, whether they appear comfortable with “regular” people and whether they speak fluently into the camera or mumble shiftily toward their feet — all these have become crucial elements in the campaign, Britain’s most important in years. “The Talent Show of the Damned,” a Guardian columnist called the final debate last week, acknowledging that the change has come at a singularly difficult time for a troubled country.

But if the process has become more American, it has done so with a British flavor, so that what has come to matter most is each candidate’s particular style of Britishness. Britons remain obsessed with the minutiae of social distinction, and the candidates have gone into elaborate contortions in their efforts to present themselves as ordinary working people. The Labour leader, Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whose father was a Scottish minister and who became a left-wing student leader at the University of Edinburgh, can plausibly get away with this. It is a harder act to pull off for David Cameron, the Conservative leader, and Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrats.

For those keeping score — which includes the entirety of the class-obsessed British news media — Mr. Clegg and Mr. Cameron came from privileged backgrounds that most Britons would call, roughly, “posh.” Yet there are gradations within gradations at the top (in The Independent, the columnist Simon Carr recently described one Tory candidate, Annunziata Rees-Mogg, as having “one of those unplaceable accents that mark out a specific quintile of the upper-lower-upper class”).

So it means something that Mr. Cameron is a descendant of King William IV and that he went to Eton, the ancient boarding school for aspiring empire-builders, whose pupils wear strange get-ups of striped trousers, tailcoats and waistcoats. And it means something else that Mr. Clegg is the grandson of a (non-British!) Russian baroness and that he went to Westminster, a first-class school in London that sits socially at a rung below Eton — in the upper-middle rather than the top drawer, perhaps.

And it also means something that while Mr. Cameron’s family made its money in good British business, Mr. Clegg grew up European rich, the descendant of White Russians and the son of a Dutchwoman. He also speaks five languages, is married to a Spaniard and was a member of the European Parliament — three strikes against him in the anti-Europe, pro-Cameron Tory press.

Emphasis on such details encourages the candidates to think more about presentation and less about pressing issues like how, exactly, they intend to reduce the $248.4 billion annual deficit, said Steven Fielding, a professor of political history and the director of the Center for British Politics at the University of Nottingham. “Given the seriousness of the issues,” he said, “this election campaign is living in a parallel universe to what is going to be going on after May 6.”

Struggling with the enormous budget deficit, a weak currency and an anemic recovery, Britain is facing the prospect of a new period of austerity as painful as anything in at least a generation. Last week, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, was quoted as warning that whoever becomes prime minister will have to make such savage cuts that his party risks being consigned to political oblivion for years afterward — just as the Conservatives were following the disasters of the early and mid-1990s.

Professor Fielding and others say that at a time like this, personality — particularly the kind that flourishes in heavily choreographed 90-minute debates — is the last thing the voters should focus on. “Glib fluency in front of the camera might win over TV viewers, but it is not an indicator of a politician’s genuine stature,” the columnist Leo McKinstry wrote recently in The Daily Mail.

Mr. Fielding said that viewers who see politicians performing on television start to regard them, in a sense, as protagonists in fictional dramas. “It’s not that they confuse them with TV characters, but that they see them in the same framework,” he said. “The leaders’ debates exaggerate that by encouraging voters to focus on the minutiae rather than on the policy.”

The debates have changed the course of the campaign by reconfiguring the political landscape. Unexpectedly catapulted to prominence at the first debate by his earnest demeanor and smooth, fresh approach, Mr. Clegg has put his party on the map, successfully presenting himself as a viable alternative to politics as usual. Mr. Cameron has used the debates to hone his credentials as potential prime minister-in-waiting, assuaging the fears of some voters, at least, that he is too slick and callow for Britain’s top job.

But Mr. Brown, a naturally uncomfortable person, has fared poorly next to his self-assured opponents. The spin from his aides that being telegenic is less important than being serious hasn’t gained traction with the public. Told to humanize his campaign by interacting with ordinary voters, Mr. Brown sabotaged the effort last week when he forgot he was wearing a microphone, angrily dismissing a lifelong Labour supporter as a “bigoted woman” after she expressed worries about immigration.

The comment certainly didn’t help Britons sort out their feelings about what it means to be British in these trying times. And what it means to actually want to be prime minister right now.

“A lot of people think, ‘Who on earth wants to be doing this?’ ” Professor Fielding said. “It could potentially finish you off.”

nytimes.com



To: nigel bates who wrote (73178)5/4/2010 6:07:36 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 149317
 
Wishing Greece Had Never Joined the Euro

By DAN BILEFSKY
Published: May 4, 2010

ATHENS — It was a harbinger of things to come.

In April 1997, the Greek finance minister, Yannos Papantoniou, implored his European Union counterparts at a meeting in Brussels to print some of the future euro notes in Greek letters. But then a stern-faced Theodore Waigel, the German finance chief, weighed in.

Latin alphabet only, Mr. Waigel insisted. Besides, Mr. Papantoniou recalls Mr. Waigel saying, poor small Greece was in no position to make demands: “He said to me, ‘What makes you think you will ever be in the euro?”’

But Mr. Papantoniou, a Socialist who shepherded Greece’s entry into the euro zone, had the last word. “I replied that Greece would be in the euro and that a poor villager in Greece would never embrace the currency unless it looked Greek,” he said during an interview. “It was a matter of pride. I fought hard, and placed a bet with him then and there — and I won.”

Now, as Greece’s E.U. partners prepare to bail out the debt-ridden country — the first time that the 16-nation euro zone has needed to rescue one of its members — many critics, inside and outside the country, are wishing that Mr. Papantoniou had lost his bet.

Amid growing concern that the contagion could spread to countries along Europe’s southern tier and even infect the Continent’s banking system, Greece’s turbulent recent history suggests that the crisis is, in many ways, a peculiarly Greek tragedy. It is rooted in an ancient country’s epic profligacy and abetted by the hubris of European leaders whose desire for integration at any cost compelled them to allow political considerations to trump economic realities.

By many accounts, Europe’s current plight can be traced to 1981, when Greece, still emerging from the aftermath of a military dictatorship, rushed to join the European Community, 14 years ahead of the much-richer Austria, Finland and Sweden, and five years before Spain and Portugal.

At the time, President François Mitterrand of France opposed the bloc’s southward expansion, fearing that countries like Greece were not ready.

But those in favor of expansion carried the day, arguing that linking countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal to European structures was the best means to modernize their fragile democracies.

For the classically educated leaders of Europe, who viewed Greece as the cradle of democracy, tying the poor Balkan country to the geographically distant western Europe was, Mr. Papantoniou recalled, a “historic mission.”

During Greece’s first decade of membership, Europe’s generous subsidies helped catapult Greece out of its backwardness. By 1997, when European leaders prepared to inaugurate the single currency, some were praising Greece, which was enjoying steady economic growth of more than 3 percent under the Socialist government of Prime Minister Costas Simitis.

For Athens, Mr. Papantoniou recalled, joining the euro was a matter of pride and necessity in that it would stabilize the country’s economy by fending off predatory speculators while allowing Greece access to credit at low interest rates as part of the wealthy euro club.

“Once we were in line to join the euro, we started to transform from a Third World country to one that aspired to look more like Switzerland,” he said.

But Greece’s path to the euro was far from assured. Public opinion in Germany, scarred by the memory of wartime hyperinflation, was wary of giving up the Deutsch mark, and the German government insisted on tough conditions for those countries wanting to join. Budget deficits were supposed to be less than 3 percent of gross domestic product, debt was not to exceed 60 percent of G.D.P. and inflation could not top 3 percent.

In December 1996, the currency’s rules were toughened in a so-called Stability and Growth Pact, intended to fine members that persistently failed to conform. The unspoken intention was to raise the barrier for southern European countries, which were seen as having looser, more inflationary, economic policies.

read more.......

nytimes.com



To: nigel bates who wrote (73178)5/8/2010 3:41:09 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 149317
 
Is this significant? Does Mann carry much weight with Labour?

Labour MP John Mann urges Brown to step down

news.bbc.co.uk