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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (246371)	5/3/2010 10:42:13 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Just turned on puter: TRADE NOTES(TSR www.spearreport.com) OVERVIEW: On Friday the Dow gave back Thursday’s gain and then some. We did not get a full retest of the recent high. This looks like the type of selling we have been expecting for many months. OPEN POSITIONS: We exited the Direxion Small Cap Bear TZA too soon. Drats. Western Digital WDC was off 6%. We are raising the stop. NEW BUYS/SHORT SALES: None. POTENTIAL WATCHLIST SHORTS We recommend puts on the DIA and SPY two years out. POTENTIAL WATCH LIST LONGS: None. Commentary (First two paragraphs of it) COMMENTARY The Dow was down 158 points on Friday, more than erasing the 122 point up-day from Thursday. The weekly loss was the worst since the January correction. The key question is whether this will be another 2-week correction followed by a rally to a new high. We doubt that will happen, although we may get an extended sideways trading range. Much depends on how soon the U.S. economy hits the “structural headwinds” described by Mohamed El Erian in an article in Barron’s over the weekend, well worth reading. These headwinds include high deficits, increased government regulation, consumer retrenchment, and a large entitlement burden........ MARKET CALLS The level of fear in the market is increasing, but it has not yet reached the level where investors have become truly defensive. That will happen once the VIX closes decisively above its 200-day moving average. That is the red line on this chart. MARKET DIRECTION The vast majority of stocks correlate with the direction of the major indices. (+) or (-) signifies a change in trend status today. Short-term Market Direction: Down Intermediate-term Market Direction: Up