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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (362352)	5/4/2010 11:35:26 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 793843

Regarding oil: <What do you think about today's situation? Is it going to stay cheap and get cheaper?> I don't study it so much these days, but $80 a barrel seems too expensive [even though the US$ is being ripped to pieces in a vast dilution process]. Other fuels and energy sources seem to be available at more like $40 a barrel. Iraq isn't at full production and while the easy Spindletop oil supplies have been used, the exploration and production techniques available now make finding and producing more difficult oil easier - the current disaster for BP notwithstanding. Saudi Arabia and others have a LOT of oil and they want to protect their market share, so prices will probably go down even though China is buying up large. Coal, tar sands such as Athabasca and bituminous goop as in the Orinoco area, huge gas reserves, nuclear energy on the production side, and on the consumption side, increased fuel efficiency, such as the A380 and hybrid cars, efficient computer adaptors, chips and what have you, insulation, and technological cultural changes [to using the internet instead of driving around on roads] mean Peak Oil will be not until 2037 [along with Peak People and mainly caused by Peak People] and the price won't rise much [other than in spikes] because the competing energy sources are lurking. My guess is that oil will get cheaper than now as measured in average human hours worked to earn a barrel of oil. US$ could go hyperinflationary so as a measuring stick they are unreliable. In 10 years, oil has zoomed from $10 a barrel to $80 = that's quite an increase even allowing for diluted dollars. Mqurice