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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (8001)	5/6/2010 10:36:44 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

Jacob, some thoughts on shorting/buying solars: The Chinese solars went down to extremely low prices in the fall of 2008--down to $2 and (very small) change for SOL, JASO, YGE and TSL (I think most of them even broke $2 for short periods of time), $3 and change for LDK, and $5 and change for STP. They can all get there again, IMHO. As I think you've said in the past, LDK may in some ways be the most vulnerable because of where they are placed on the value chain. On the other hand, you are right to point out that they have gotten some sweetheart deals from banks in China (which is to say, the government). That doesn't meant that their stock won't be permitted to go back to $3 or lower, though. My current guess is that these stocks will continue to get hammered, but may plausibly become at least trading buys sometime at the end of this year when no one can imagine why anyone in their right mind would buy them. They will be at fearful levels and we all will wonder where the bottom is, or if there is a bottom. But the first time we say "This has to be the bottom" won't be the last time. A sector fraught with danger and opportunity. But with larger, well financed and more diversified companies like Sharp, DuPont, Toshiba, Samsung, GE and others either already in or saying they are entering the solar business at various points on the value chain, can an independent company focused just on solar survive (unless they have government support)?