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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (83568)	5/7/2010 8:55:34 AM
From: tonto	3 Recommendations Respond to of 224757

There are a number of indicators that feed into forecasts of Friday’s monthly payroll report – a net number representing the result of hirings and layoffs – and the unemployment rate, also dependent on flows into and out of the labor force. While payrolls are also a reaction to revenue and profit expectations, the unemployment rate and size of the labor force might more reflect confidence and an increase in the unemployment rate, rather than reflecting a deterioration of the labor market, could mean discouraged workers returned to the labor force. The overwhelming dynamic in the April payroll report will be the Census Bureau. Census had announced plans to hire about 1.15 million workers for the decennial count, 181,000 in the first three months of the year and another 970,000 in the three months beginning April. Through March, Census had added about 85,000 jobs – including 48,000 in March alone. Making up for the hiring shortfall from the first quarter and new jobs added in the beginning of the second will have a major impact on the overall payroll count. The ADP report out Wednesday suggested a turning point in private-sector payrolls catching up with government reports. According to BLS, the private sector has added jobs in four of the last five months. After revisions to previous reports, the ADP report showed private-sector job gains in each of the last three months. One reason the ADP report may be off from the BLS report is coverage: in the last five months, the total ADP private-sector count has been about 350,000 below the BLS' job count. In the previous five months, the ADP job count was only about 18,000 (on average) below BLS. Extrapolated, the difference could itself add 40,000 to 50,000 private sector jobs on top of the ADP-reported increase. Another factor likely to contribute to job growth is the 14-month old $787 billion American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, a stimulus package representing about 6% of GDP. According to a recently published National Bureau for Economic Research paper, “an increase in government spending of 1% GDP generates output and unemployment multipliers respectively of about 1.2% (at one year) and 0.6 percentage points (at the peak). Each percentage point increase in GDP produces an increase in employment of about 1.3 million jobs.” The arithmetic from that analysis suggests a 3.6% increase in GDP and 4.7 million jobs. Indeed, first quarter GDP was up 2.5% from first quarter 2009, equating to about four million jobs. Payrolls in March were down about 2.6 million jobs from March 2009 which suggests they are poised for a dramatic increase. The unemployment rate will depend on confidence in the labor market. The most recent consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board offered a mixed view: 4.8% of those surveyed said jobs were plentiful – the highest percentage since last May. However, 50.2% of those surveyed said jobs were not so plentiful. The real wild card in this forecast will be hours worked. At the start of the recession, average weekly hours were 34.7 and fell as low as 33.7. Hours recovered a bit to 34.0 in March, but the decline through March is the equivalent of another 2.6 million jobs. Since it is less expensive for an employer to increase hours than staff, hours should be restored before jobs are added. It will also be key to look for withheld tax receipts, which historically, are a good predictor of hours worked. In April, withheld tax receipts were $139.4 billion, down from $164.9 billion in March. But, the most recent Gallup “Job Creation Index” based on 16,171 U.S. employees' self reports of hiring and firing activity at their workplaces, shows employees' perceptions improved three points in April and are 10 points better than a year ago. Despite its improvement in 2010, the index remains 17 points below its April 2008 level. According to the Gallup survey, 27% of employees say their companies are hiring, while 22% report lay offs. The two lines of the graph crossed – hirings exceeding layoffs – in January. The five point spread is the widest since late 2008. Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (83568)	5/7/2010 9:06:44 AM
From: TideGlider	2 Recommendations Respond to of 224757

Headline this morning? US and Western nations cannot support their liabilities, but will print money before they default.