I am sitting here on the beaches of Maui, and looking for the whales. In their absence, I am carefully evaluating my portfolio away from all of the noise. I needed time to clear my head, and figure out where I personally am going in the market.
I get prices as of the close, and don't have an opportunity to watch every tick, and swear and yell at every downtick.
I have spent many hours working on my own personal model for TPRO, and here it is if you care.
Many of you know what I have felt, and you agree or disagree to whatever I say, but we all march to our own drummer, and to eac h his own.
First of all, I will expose myself to the flamers who want to tear me apart, when I criticze their opinions or efforts to figure out every single sale of CD, or contract or whatever. I am very thin skinned,(on my head), but I think you are literally wasting time. I truly believe that a lot of you are missing the very big picture, and are most intereted in MM's, marginability, news, insider sales(BS), URL links on world ending 12/31/99, etc...........
In 6 months, I would like someone to pull up this post, and tell me that I was totally full of whatever, or say Skip, thank you.
IBM,INTC,CSCO, et al ,sell on current earnings penny by penny, quarter by quarter. Our little baby TPRO has been scrutinized under a microscope, day by day, announcement by announcement.
Try and follow my obtuse thinking. Today is day 1. I am looking at TPRO as a new idea, because tomorrow that is what it is in the real world.
Assumtion #1. 10/31/97-10/31/98 TPRO has 20,000 CD-ROMs in the market place bringing in revenues of $60,000,000 @ 80% pre-tax margins/23.5mm shares=$48,000,000 pre-tax x.60%=$28.800,000/23.5mm=$1.22 eps.
Assumption #2. Basic business=$45mm@8% after tax=$3,600,000/23.5mm=$.15 eps.
Adding #1+#2= $1.37x25 p/e=$34.25
None of the above gives any additions from any other business, any contracts with PPW,Square D, FLR/Daniels, or anything new.
At $6 1/4, what do I care about all of the flack, BS, MM's,Insiders, margin, market, JW,Timmmbbbeeerr,DDIM,ZITL,Hong Kong,etc...
People, get real, you know what that the risk is in my model???
I am low, it may be MUCH bigger. If I can make 600% in a year based on my model, to me that is fair rate of return, and to recieve that I am willing to take a lot of risk. 6x up, 1x down, them are pretty good odds.
I know a lot of you will rip this apart, but have a ball, my bet is on the table, and I will increase it at these prices, and carry me the hell out,but if I am right, I will come and live with the whales.
(~:~) (~:~) (~:~) |
