Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (63720)	5/19/2010 8:12:12 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 217666

More of the same 2. The budget trajectory. Deficits at the state and federal levels are high but are likely to come down. At the federal level, we recently marked down our estimate of the FY2010 federal deficit from $1.64 trillion (11.2% of GDP) to $1.575 trillion (10.7% of GDP), due to better than expected personal income tax receipts and other revenues.2 Our FY2011 estimate still stands at $1.396 trillion (9.2% of GDP). At its worst, the aggregate state fiscal gap will have been less than 10% the size of the federal deficit. Official projections seem to be troughing (Exhibit 4) and withheld tax receipts have been strong. However, with several states not reporting projected figures for 2012 or 2013, the improvement is not as strong as it appears. Of the states that do report 2011 through 2013 numbers, the budget gap is actually set to grow by $14 billion from 2011 to 2013. 3. Contingent liabilities. State employee pension underfunding (7% of GDP) and the federal government?s GSE and bank debt (TLGP) guarantees add another 2% of GDP to total obligations.3 The exact degree of underfunding of state retiree obligations is uncertain, and could present risk to some states not captured in the numbers above.4