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Technology Stocks : GTIS - Will it be a Phoenix or not ? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RJC2006 who wrote (1103)11/6/1997 3:32:00 PM
From: Bill Gizzo  Respond to of 2319
 
<<What earnings impact would you guess from all this? I must admit I am not really sure. Undecided between heavy negative or none at all.
There is a certain liability in missing deadline dates in that it's often difficult to trust new estimates. We've been talking about this title over a year now haven't we?>>

Intially I'd say a negative one, however, management's position is they're still comfortable with current estimates (see emails below). On the upside there's a considerable chance for a big upside surprise in Q2 with Unreal and DN4EVR due out. A key statement by the CEO (Re. the earnings report) that this will be a pivotal year for GT is enormously important. IMHO, This next year GT will either go to 20+ or fade to into obscurity, depending how things go. The odds for success are extremely good !! MPRS has a great lineup, plus there's DN4EVR, Prey, Millenium 4 The Right (5D Games),"the delayed release of" Unreal, Max Payne from 3D Realms (I'm speculating here), plus next generation titles from SingleTrac and Odd World Inhabitants (further installments to the Abe series, as well as other developers. Who knows what's next from CaveDog??
IMHO: the street is always behind the curve on this one, this company will grow to the size of ERTS, but the transition period will be somewhat tenuous. Investor's have to take the long view to realize the full rewards. Of course, one could get out and then try to time a re-entrance point. Six of one, half a dozen of another. Myself, I'm continuing to accumulate on dips.
Yes we have been discussing Unreal for over a year. I have to agree with DB (GT's I/R rep) pushing it out the door early could have disastrous results. That's what happened with Blood, and it never realized its full potential. I'm hanging tough on this one although I'm not expecting much this quarter.
Cheers
Bill

My email to GT

Subject:
Unreal - Now, not till firsthalf of 98
Date:
Tue, 04 Nov 1997 14:50:21 -0500
From:
Bill Gizzo <seacruzr@net-magic.net>
To:
dharnett@gtinteractive.com

Dear Sirs:
I have a considerable position in GTIS stock and am totally confused
with regard to the release of Unreal. Recently it was reported (@ PC
Gamer/ OGR ) this game would be out before Christmas, now On-Line Game
Review is reporting that it won't be released until the FIRST Half of 98 as in March /April !!! I am a investor and a gamer, this news is a major disappointment to me in both regards. Why is the game being delayed and why is there so much controversy on the release date. With the upcoming merger with MPRS there will be a number of games being developed by this company (EpicMegagames) for GT Interactive,( in addition to Unreal ), can I expect to hear that all of these will experience similar release delays ?? This news concerns me as making EPS numbers is dependent on getting the product to market on time, and Epic seems to have a problem in this regard.
Thank-you in advance for any information you can provide me with.
Sincerely
William Gizzo

GT's Response:

Dear Mr. Gizzo,

As you probably know product delays are an inherent risk to this
industry. Delays usually occur within the last several months of the development process and are difficult to predict. For well over 3 months we've been very public regarding the risk to Unreal and have publicly stated several times that although we were pushing to release the title in the fourth quarter there was a risk that it may not make it.

We announced yesterday that Unreal would indeed not make the fourth
quarter but due to increased orders of Duke Nukem for N64 and Sony
Playstation as well as the continued strength of Oddworld and Total
Annihilation we were still comfortable with fourth quarter estimates.

As far as Epic having a problem with delivering product on time I am
unaware of any other situations in the past or future regarding problems with Epic. It's also interesting to note that some of the "biggest"
products in this industry have been delayed - "Riven", "Quake II" etc.

All we are trying to do is ensure that we are shipping the best product we can and if that means delaying the release date that's what we'll do.
I've worked in this industry for almost nine years and I've seen my
share of companies releasing a product that should have been a
significant hit too early just to get it with the door. Believe me it always has disastrous results.

We are still very excited regarding the holiday season as well as our prospects for 1998!

If I can be of any further assistance please do not hesitate to contact me.

Sincerely,

Dawn Berrie
Investor Relations Manager
GT Interactive