Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10462)	11/6/1997 1:37:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, AMAT is part of my core position but there are reasons for concern in this market. Even though recent economic conditions have been favorable, the market looks six months out at least. Some portfolio managers are factoring in slower GDP growth, reduced earnings growth, slower consumer spending and even bumping up the possiblity of a recession from 5 to 10%. The answer to your question, "What has changed?", is that perceptions of risk/reward tradeoffs have and are changing. But as a long term investor with the ability to average in additional purchases it probably does not matter greatly to you. (Over the long run, James Morgan is as good as anyone to manage the risks.) By itself, Asian declines may not have mattered but in the global economy we all share, where vast amounts of capital move quickly, it does add uncertainty. Check out the following post and add to that the fact that the Bank of England raised interest rates today. A recession or declining growth in Europe adds significant risk to equities given their relatively high valuations and current growth outlook. techstocks.com Sorry I couldn't provide a direct link to the Bloomberg report. IMHO the big "what-if" in the market now is "if" a recession or slowdown does occur and gets factored into equities how quickly will declining interest rates bring about a recovery. Good investing all.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10462)	11/6/1997 2:47:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<<I have a difficult time believing that AMAT will grow from $3.25 in FY99 to only $4.00 in FY02 THREE YEARS! That is an annualized growth rate in the SINGLE DIGITS!!!!>> Are you forgetting the cyclicality of the industry? Since 1980, there has been a severe downturn in the growth rate every four to six years. Since the last downturn started in '96, the next downturn could start anywhere from 2000 to 2002, if the historical pattern is repeated.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10462)	11/6/1997 3:22:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, RE: "Either the estimates for the near future are much inflated(I do not think so) or Morgan is being very conservative(History repeated)." You have put your finger on the issue. I have seen estimates up to $3.50 for '99 and $10B for 2002 has been repeated enough to start sounding like BOILERPLATE. On the other hand, as we get closer to 2002, Morgan should be more accurate. We have been hoping for faster growth from AMAT than 20% and we have once heard $10-15B early next century. We have also heard that 300mm implementation will be dragged out and will cause a slowdown in industry growth. You say "I do not think so." I say "I don't know and I am concerned." Cary