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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Smith who wrote (39168)	11/6/1997 12:48:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

<<The stock right now is trading at 18+ TRAILING PE>> And at 18-20 times 12 mo. forward PE. Thats the problem and it is a big one. Intel is likely to do nothing for six to nine months. Could even go down. Its sharp rise is also not absolutely assured. Its a great company, but they are facing a paradigm shift. While the need for speed will go up again, it could well face a longer pause than usual. Until cable modems/xdsl modems start to be widely available. That could be two-three years. Now I think they'll pull something out of their sleeves before then, but, growth is currently in question.... If Intel sells 25% more processors, but at half the avg. gross margin, iIntel's earnings go down more than 37%. Just to illustrate the issue. Doug

To: Joey Smith who wrote (39168)	11/6/1997 1:26:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

I'm not sure all the bad news is in the stock. The P/E has been less than 18 in the past. If memory serves me correctly, it was in the 12 range at one time. INTC has seldom commanded a real high P/E. I'm a long term Intel bull, but I wish I had lightened up more when it was 100. I will probably start buying again if it gets to the mid to low 60's. There is some TA support at 70 and also at 64 or so. This bull run started in early 1996, at a post split 26. Thus it ran up 75 points. A 50% correction would not spoil the long term bull case, and would take INTC to the mid 60's, which also happens to be the bottom of the trading bands I use (2.5 std deviations from a 21 day moving average.( I take TA with a big grain of salt but it is useful in cases like this.) good investing