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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Madharry who wrote (37987)5/22/2010 12:47:52 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78462
 
re GS - Madharry, GS is not borrowing their short term funding from the FED, I never said it that way. They are borrowing it via interbank lending from other too big to fail institutions - I called it quasi guaranteed. This is made easier because they are a bank holding now.

FWIW, the FDIC guaranteed LT debt was a great bargain for GS - they took it on in the worst of the crisis - due to the FDIC guarantee they paid close to the going rate for treasuries - a 1B$ gift annually.

Clarification -the 1.5B$ in interest for GS was quarterly, which makes it ~6B$ annually - not a bad rate to float ~600B$ in liabilities.

Just imagine for a while, GS had to pay 5% interest rates , that would make 30B$ /year! Their entire profit would be gone. That is probably not reasonable since they have other low cost funding sources - the discount window (also run by the Fed) etc. But still, without cheap money, they would have to liquidate a huge amount of their trading operation and their profit would fall. They probably would end up being 1/2 the size and half the profits and could return some excessive funds to shareholders. We would end up with an investment bank and asset managemer with a little gambling on the side. Now it's 80% gambling and 2% other business, all financed by cheap taxpayer guarantees. Maybe they can convert their gambling operation into a hedge fund in this case.

I'd guess if you buy for tangible book, you would be OK even in that latter scenario.