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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Dior who wrote (5491)	11/6/1997 2:09:00 PM
From: Joe Gleason	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

Why AOL is in REAL Trouble: With Microsoft starting to invest Billion's in Key Cable company's, it's clear they believe the future of the internet is cable modems.. I think it's fair to say that with in 2 years 30% of the home market will be accessing the internet over cable modems... With Microsofts invested interest, the users will be given a BIASED choice, Microsoft's browsers and network (and in small print hidden somewhere AOL).. Netscape was a good leader with it's browser, Microsoft wanted that.. Just about the time AOL start gets a decent PE - say 50, Microsoft will be comming on full speed... Internet users will be accessing the net @ super speeds, and much of AOL's attraction will have been lost to the free market (animation sound)... @ one point AOL was the place to put your content - Tomorrow it wont be... My point is AOL spent big bucks buying market share it can't hold on to! Even if it kept 100% of them it's paid cost per subscriber is to much -

To: Ron Dior who wrote (5491)	11/6/1997 3:14:00 PM
From: Yikes	Respond to of 13594

Ron Dior, >> AOL is the leader and they will make billion upon billions of dollars when the internet actually gets moving. Thats why this stock keeps taking off, not because of the MM's or the fund managers! << The Internet is already moving, and AOL is being left behind. I like to hear your reasoning for AOL earning billions and billions of dollars. Just to be fair, here are my reasoning for AOL NOT even able to earn millions and millions: techstocks.com techstocks.com techstocks.com techstocks.com Yikes P.S. I am not full of hot-air and self import. SI provides a list of my posts, that's why I am only quoting myself. :-)

To: Ron Dior who wrote (5491)	11/6/1997 4:03:00 PM
From: jack rand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

>>Don't forget when computers first came onto the "personal computer >>scene", there was a small company called IBM that had many problems >>and glitches with their technology. Your history is lacking. Masters of the Universe in the early days of PCs were Osborne, Kaypro, Atari, Commodore -- and don't forget APPL. Yep, gimme some of that UNLIMITED POTENTIAL like they say on the matchbook ads.

To: Ron Dior who wrote (5491)	11/6/1997 11:54:00 PM
From: Investor-ex!	Respond to of 13594

Ron, No matter which way this whole info-hiway goes, you can be assured that AOL will be right in the middle. Don't forget when computers first came onto the "personal computer scene", there was a small company called IBM that had many problems and glitches with their technology. When the 386 came out everyone thought that we were so advanced into the techno-age. You're in the right forest but barking up the wrong tree. The proper analogy is: AOL is to the Internet as Apple is to the PC. The IBM PC is an open microcomputer architecture that IBM gave away (accidentally or intentionally), while the Apple platform is a closed hardware/OS system that is controlled exclusively by Apple. Anyone who wanted to participate in the PC market was able to, without taking direction or paying homage to anyone. This allowed the PC to quickly eclipse Apple (plus the fact that Apple's management, lacking foresight, allowed their assets to "rot on the vine"). Similarly, the Internet is a wide open system. Anyone who wants to set up a server, provide content, render services, advertise, or vend products may do so at the drop of a hat. Register your domain and go nuts. (It helps if you are already in the business you are trying to virtualize). Anyone, anywhere can access the bulk of the Internet free of charge. Internet content is constantly evolving and improving in both quality and quantity. Conversely, AOL's on-line service is a closed system. As a vendor or advertiser, you cannot appear on AOL without getting permission and paying a fee. AOL is an exclusive, controlled, needlessly expensive environment hosted by a superfluous middleman. The quality of AOL's content will never be able to keep up with the Internet unless they severely limit their scope and specialize like mad. AOL appeals to the neophyte for the same reasons that Apple appeals to the neophyte. This short-term advantage quickly fades, as the ubiquitous competing technology soon either becomes simple enough for all, or the naivet‚ of the neophyte dissipates. Unfortunately, the analogy falls apart when one considers AOL's quality, customer service, client loyalty, technological leadership, etc. One could make the case that AOL is a sort of future (fallen) Apple in the making, except with no chance of a monopoly brand and not a tenth as good in its heyday as Apple was in its.