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Politics : Just the Facts, Ma'am: A Compendium of Liberal Fiction -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (79959)	5/26/2010 7:54:55 AM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90947

Is Another Big Dip in Obama's Approval Ahead? Jim Geraghty In Barack Obama Throughout 2009, my reader "Number Cruncher" would look at the polling in New Jersey, plug the breakdown among Democrats, Republicans, and independents into his own sense of how the electorate would look on Election Day, and, almost every time, conclude that Chris Christie would win by a few percentage points. (In January, he assessed a late Massachusetts poll here.) Recently, Number Cruncher thought that the reemergence of the illegal-immigration issue -- and in particular, Democrats lining up against Arizona's law, and then applauding Calderone's criticism -- might end up being a big factor. Yesterday he weighed in: <<< Drudge has teased Rasmussen Results with Obama at 44 percent . . . I believe this is a VERY major development. Unlike some previous dips (for example Cambridge Cops), this dip will have lasting implications, because this issue is not going to go away. In fact I would say this issue has more staying power than healthcare (I don't believe its more important) because changes to healthcare will come relatively slowly (i.e. we can forget about it now); immigration reform is a hot issue with states passing their own laws in defiance of the lack of federal action. As the immigration debate continues, he could actually dip below 40 percent. Last month it was hard to picture the GOP with a more favorable conditions going into the mid-terms; that has changed. Immigration or should I say ILLEGAL immigration debate has caught the attention of the country. The Arizona Law, even in the most liberal states polls net positive. Nationally, the Arizona law polls 55%-33%-12%, which indicates that 62.5% with an opinion favor the new Law (55%/88%=62.5%). With a nation in extreme debt, the last thing the mainstream voter wants is a border policy which allows more people to drain on our already stressed public assistance services, this includes many who are drawing on those services, who are life long Democrats. >>> This morning, Rasmussen puts Obama's approval rating at a new low, 42 percent. Gallup is not showing this phenomenon quite yet. Today, Number Cruncher writes in: <<< Can't say I didn't see this coming, the poll movement clearly tracked to real events. Immigration Reform killed Bush because he base never trusted him again. The Immigration/secure our borders debate isn't a trust issue for Democrats, but it has had another nasty effect. The debate has "outed" Obama and Democrats in general. Even the most casual voter, now clearly understands that Obama's priorities are not commensurate with defending the image of the country; real bad perception to be stuck with. I speak to you as one who is not crazy about the AZ Law, but one who clearly understands it I would not be surprised if Monday Night polling was under 40%. Forget any notion of 30-to 40 seats. Try 60 to 80. >>> We'll see; the logic is sound, but there have been times where I thought Obama's numbers would sink and they didn't; and events that I thought were second-tier issues (the Cambridge police comment) have seemed to drive bigger swings than I expected. If we do see a slump in Obama's approval in multiple polls, I wonder if the greater factor will be illegal immigration, or the perception that nothing's been fixed in the Gulf Coast after a month . . .

To: Sully- who wrote (79959)	5/26/2010 10:14:13 AM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90947

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Rasmussen Reports The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-five percent (45%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22. That’s the lowest Approval Index rating yet measured for this president (see trends). Enthusiasm for the president among Democrats, which bounced following passage of the health care law, has faded again. Just 48% of those in the president’s party now Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance. That’s down from 65% earlier. Among men, 20% Strongly Approve and 50% Strongly Disapprove. Among women, those numbers are 27% and 40% (see other recent demographic highlights). The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook. Overall, 43% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-five percent (56%) disapprove. The number who give the president good or excellent marks for handling the economy has fallen to 35%. That’s down four points from a week ago. Forty-eight percent (48%) say the nation’s economic problems were caused primarily by President Bush while 43% blame President Obama. See other measures of the president’s performance at Obama By the Numbers. Despite the challenges from the Gulf Oil Spill, just 16% of voters favor nationalization of the oil industry. .