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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (38041)	5/26/2010 11:14:40 AM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

OT - FWIW, my favorites - in no particular order are: JEC, ACM & TLVT.

To: E_K_S who wrote (38041)	5/26/2010 10:35:40 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78751

re ALO.PA - I am somewhat sceptical too regarding infrastructure but it looks like Alstom is well position and while margins are still somewhat low, they have shown consistent improvement. their backlog is till large (I think it's 27 month worth or work) but it is shrinking, albeit at a slower rate (because book/bill is improving but still below 1). What matters is not what a contract is bid in, it matters what currency your costs are and I bet that Alstoms overhead is mostly in Euro (variable cost depends on location) so a lower Euro for sure is an advantage. Besides that ALO.PA has already it's double dip, the shareprice is almost back to march 2009 lows (above 10% above now). I agree that a double dip recession is a possibility but I don't think that the stimulus has played a huge role for Alstom's business, i am not aware of any power plans or trains that were build from stimulus money. Those projects need years from inception to build, so they would not kick in, even when funded. I think most stimulus funds were used for smaller projects (smartmeters, some transmission projects) where money can be spent fast.

To: E_K_S who wrote (38041)	5/27/2010 10:26:54 AM
From: Walter Bagehot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

RE: CBI Would you want LNG exposure though? I'm not particularly macro, but in this industry, I think you have to take a view on it: there are large numbers of LNG assets that are underutilised at present, since shale gas has been so successful as a new technology, that the US has raised domestic gas production. Certainly there might be demand as new power plants come online, but I'm not bullish on the infrastructure or the contractors, as the infra has tended to be overbuilt. Was it not Graham who recommended a maximum P/E of 7 for non-growth businesses?