Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (10675)	5/28/2010 2:23:51 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24213

] ROCKMAN on May 28, 2010 - 12:16pm gb -- let me offer a summary of where we are right now. I think I have all the facts but if not someone will point out the error. One confusion seems to be the source of the oil/NG leak. Some focus on the oil/NG coming out of different sections of the riser. The riser isn't the source of the oil/NG. It's coming out of the well head/BOP. Some of that flow may be entering the riser and leaking elsewhere out of it. But if every hole in the riser were plugged the same amount of oil/NG would be leaking into the GOM from the well head/BOP. As far as the top kill working I don't think we can tell that ourselves from watching the video. The top kill is a simple concept: pump drilling mud into the well head/BOP at a sufficient pressure to stop the oil/NG flowing out. If the connection between the well head/BOP and the line carrying the mud wasn't leaking then this would be a standard kill process: increase pump pressure high enough to push the oil/NG back down the csg into the rocks at the bottom of the well. But the connection apparently leaks like a sieve. An earlier report indicated they had pumped 30,000 bbls of mud down. But the csg in the blow out can only hold a max of 1,400 bbls of mud if it were completely filled. Obviously most of the mud leaked out. Can we tell if oil/NG is flowing out of the well or if we're watching the drilling mud leaking out? We can't because we don't know exactly when they have the mud pumps working or not. Of course, BP knows. If they have the pumps off and they see something flowing out of the well head/BOP it can only be one thing: oil/NG. More importantly they would also know they haven't killed the well. If the pumps are on they will see lots of stuff flowing. Be it the mud leaking or the oil/NG continuing to flow is anyone's guess at that point. And killing a flowing well is exactly like being pregnant: you either are or you're not. You can't partially stop a well from flowing. If you did get some kill mud down the well but if it's still flowing then that mud is coming right back up and out the well. That is the basic definition of a blow out. If you've gotten enough mud down the hole to stop the flow then you've stopped the flow. But it might not be stopped for good. Any NG that might still be escaping into the well at the bottom can mix with the mud and lighten it enough to cause the head to be lost and begin the well flowing. Such "gas cut mud" is often the cause of many well control situations. Again, maybe I missed something so please, anyone, point it out.