Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MCsweet who wrote (38100)	5/29/2010 11:45:09 AM
From: Grantcw	1 Recommendation Respond to of 78745

Well, McSweet, ATPG is a bit tricky these days. To me, lots of risk and lots of reward. But, I'm in with a good position. Where do I start... To me, the potential cash flow implications are hard to analyze because there are many possibilities. 1) It's uncertain if any wells/rigs ATPG currently has in play are impacted by Obama's recent accouncement. It appears that one of them is, but nothing is certain at this point. 2) The second issue is can ATPG still move forward to completion with all of their planned Telemark activities this year. They may have already drilled all they need to for their new wells, but maybe not. I would be surprised if they could move forward unaffected, but it's possible. Lots of questions... 3) And what about increased insurance costs and increased safety costs needed for ATPG? I guess my overall view is that ATPG was around these levels in 2009 when the price of oil was much lower, before they refinanced their debt (thank goodness they did this!), and before they started producing from Telemark in large amounts. I'm hoping that based on their assets, they have a good chance of making it through this period of uncertainty one way or another towards future serious cash flows - a better chance than I would have given them to make it through 2009 (which they did, of course). If you are looking for financial models, there are a lot of people on Yahoo cranking them out, but there is a lot of junk to sort through there also. Thanks, cwg

To: MCsweet who wrote (38100)	5/29/2010 11:50:58 AM
From: Paul Senior	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78745

ATPG. Because ATP is deep-water GOM, an ATP analysis has to include the ramifications of the GOM oil spill and government's subsequent responses, such as delaying permitting or increasing inspections. There's right now some question as to which exploratory wells or production-ready wells in the Gulf are immediately affected. (ATPG may have one or more.) In my opinion, it's too soon to see exactly how ATPG will be affected by these new rules and promulgations. That said, it still seems to me ATPG's major producing platform, Titan, will continue its hookups and its planned increases in production. With this, the stock, imo, is very undervalued. The market seems to strongly disagree. For a "nice, detailed analysis", a purely numerical one though (spreadsheet), here is: samtibbs.com The person developed it and posted it on Yahoo's ATP message board.