Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (250972)	5/31/2010 2:44:25 AM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

News networks say access to oil spill ’slowly being strangled off’ rawstory.com By The Associated Press Saturday, May 29th, 2010 -- 9:41 pm NEW ORLEANS - Media organizations say they are being allowed only limited access to areas impacted by the Gulf oil spill through restrictions on plane and boat traffic that are making it difficult to document the worst spill in U.S. history. The Associated Press, CBS and others have reported coverage problems because of the restrictions, which officials say are needed to protect wildlife and ensure safe air traffic. Ted Jackson, a photographer for The Times-Picayune newspaper in New Orleans, said Saturday that access to the spill "is slowly being strangled off." A CBS news story said one of its reporting teams was threatened with arrest by the Coast Guard and turned back from an oiled beach at the mouth of the Mississippi River. The story said the reporters were told the denial was under "BP's rules." cont...

To: stockman_scott who wrote (250972)	5/31/2010 2:52:27 AM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 306849

Cold Comfort, Cold Facts: August and After. by RLMiller Sun May 30, 2010 at 07:04:18 PM PDT In some circles, a "cold comfort letter" confirms certain accounting information and provides limited negative assurances concerning changes in the issuer’s financial condition since the last audit. To most of us, "cold comfort" means very slight consolation. (Graphic credit: Mike Mitchell) Today, both BP and high-ranking Obama Administration officials acknowledged what many of us have suspected and feared for some time: chances of stanching the flow of oil from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico before August are slim at best. Some truth is finally being told after misstatements. It's cold comfort in light of cold facts: Do not pin all hope on the relief wells working in August. RLMiller's diary :: :: Cold fact no. 1: The LRMP is not likely to work and may make matters worse. This morning, BP's Managing Director Bo Dudley told ABC's This Week that the LRMP (Lower Marine Riser Package, a containment effort) would only minimize the pollution going into the Gulf. Shortly after, White House Energy Adviser Carol Browner and Dudley both appeared on Meet the Press. Dudley acknowledged what many of us suspected -- the topkill was a matter of luck. Browner, less worried about stock prices and more worried about the effectiveness of the LRMP: MS. BROWNER: Well, the top kill would have shut it down. There wouldn't have been any oil coming up. We're now going to move into a situation where they're going to attempt to control the oil that's coming out, move it to a vessel, take it onshore. Obviously that's not the preferred scenario.... MR. GREGORY: Right. But the bottom line is, you're not--I should say, the bottom line is, the chances are very high that nothing is going to work until a relief well is in place. All these attempts are still basically low-percentage plays. We're looking at an oil flow that goes on until August. MS. BROWNER: We are prepared for the worst. The New York Times adds that the containment cap (LRMP) "could actually increase the flow of oil by as much as 20 percent because a key pipe — a riser — needed to be cut to allow for the cap to have a spot over which it could fit cleanly." The 20 percent estimate is a government estimate. In short: BP's former strategy was based on luck, its new strategy is no better and may make things worse, and the WH is now (finally?) prepared for Oilpocalypse to spew poison until August. But at least the relief wells will do the trick in August, right? Cold Fact No. 2: Relief wells are not failsafe. NPR asks if BP's last best hope is a sure thing, and finds that the answer depends on who is asked. One of the "world's leading experts in marine engineering" has a lot of ifs in describing the process: "If all goes according to plan, that water should make its way into the lower end of the leaking well, displacing oil. If that succeeds, the next step is to pump in a mineral mud, which follows the sea water up the broken well. Once that mud hits the well, concrete can be pumped into the relief well. 'If you get a tall tower of mud, and if you're lucky, you'll stop it,' said Milgram." Here's the two relief wells' progress as of May 26, via BP and the federal Joint Unified Command: Last year, an oil well 250 feet undersea in the East Timor region of Australia blew out. A relief well stopped the blowout. On the fifth try. The blowout began on August 21. The first relief well, drilled on October 6, missed. So did the second, third, and fourth wells. The fifth one made it on November 1. The relief well drill job was tricky because of a small ten-inch casing; Deepwater Horizon's well has an even smaller seven-inch casing. Rep. Markey believes that two relief wells double the chance of success. Browner and Obama have both reiterated the government's demand that BP drill a second well. I've discussed relief well matters with an editor and knowledgeable commentator at The Oil Drum. One gives a less than 50 percent chance of one well succeeding; the other is more sanguine. In short: relief wells seem to be like baby-making: not guaranteed to work the first time, but enough tries will get the job done. Cold Fact No. 3: BP has suspended work on the second relief well so that its blowout preventer can be on standby, presumably with the knowledge and consent of the federal government. In turn, that cold fact raises interesting questions: WHO THE F*CK IS DOING RISK MANAGEMENT? If the LRMP has such a slim chance of success, why are efforts being diverted from the second relief well to the LRMP? Is the Obama administration truly prepared for the fact that the first and second relief wells might not work? If so, why hasn't a third relief well been ordered? As August heat and hurricanes approach, take cold comfort indeed in cold facts.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (250972)	5/31/2010 7:37:14 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

RIP Flipper Perhaps the highlight of everyone’s day was when we broke out of the surface oil slick and entered beautiful blue, crystal clear Gulf of Mexico surface water. There, we were joined by a pod of Spinner Dolphins who kept everyone entertained for half an hour by “surfing” the bow wave of the ship doing acrobatic spins and flips in the air. Seeing these dolphins swimming and jumping made me forget about the oil spill for just a little while.