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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moose who wrote (5535)	11/6/1997 4:37:00 PM
From: Brent D. Beal	Respond to of 13594

As people pick apart the number (as much as this is possible, since AOL makes most of this stuff up) things are only going to get worse. AOL has always had a penchant for obfuscation, ambiguity, and just plain bullshit accounting practices, so I expect things to be interesting from here on out. I repeat my prediction--a fairly slow up and down slide to around $35 over the next 6 months.

To: moose who wrote (5535)	11/6/1997 4:40:00 PM
From: Brent D. Beal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

I notice that AOL, after the 4c, hit the expected number right on. What a coincidence. I wonder how many accounting regulations they ignored this time around--if they start out at $.12, what is the restatement going to look like? Hell, they may not have really made anything this quarter.

To: moose who wrote (5535)	11/6/1997 4:40:00 PM
From: vegetarian	Respond to of 13594

Yes, any one time charges or gains are excluded in determining the earning potential of the company so the real earnings are only 12c and not 16c which just about have met analyst expectations. Last Q, they showed earning of 9c vs expected 7c with a 29% earning surprise that was probably responsible for the run in stock price that we saw. The company will probably come out with some propaganda to hold onto its price in the CC, but with the current valuations they are priced too richly and in my opinion the price will falter to some extent. The extent of downdraft depends on what they feed the analysts in the conf call and the labor numbers tomorrow.