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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cluka who wrote (48040)	6/2/2010 4:50:15 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 95611

<In 1998 we had one of the most devastating downturns at the time of absolute explosion in technology spending. Many posters on this board, including me, just could not understand why at the time. Where was all that technology spending going then? From what I recall we were laying an insane amount of fiber everywhere. A lot of that spending was also going into every internet name including B2B. So I'm sure PCs were doing OK but I really don't see what the major new chip intensive technology change was then. We clearly have it now with mobile internet devices and to a lessor extent advanced technology auto engines, smart grids and other new chip intensive technology. Unlike the spending during the internet bubble there is a real fundamental reason for the chip cycle to be different now. If we even forget about the technology driver just the fact that everyone like you and the chip equipment companies got burnt so badly in the past everyone is being overly conservative in the face of the current demand. It gets back to what John Maynard Keynes said. "When the fact change I change my mind. What do you do sir". Yes, we must be cautious not to repeat the mistakes of the past and avoid irrational exuberance. But unless one recognizes when the facts have indeed changed it is impossible to properly assess if that change has caused over-exuberance.