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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (64058)	6/2/2010 8:24:21 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217662

that was the excess savings portion the next tranche down would be regular surplus below that, walking around cash on top of living wage all on top of cost probably 180+ days of work, just for understanding the situation, recon the terrain, check out the force vectors, assess what if anything can be done, and start on trying to seize control, to be followed by still more if not much more days of gaining back lost assets and missing rights, and sort out interim contractual damage with business counter-parties the mission is to save a 200+ mil deal that is already completed but has gone rogue by command of evil canadian and chinese co-founders/minority shareholders (10% carried interest)/ex-management (all the same two wastrels who do not know best) you would be amazed how loosey-goosey the private equity folks do their dd and how sloppy they are with post-acquisition management supervision in any case, at the sorry end the two clowns shall be bankrupted, divorced, and put in jail, either for what they have explicitly done or whatever. for they deserve no better. how much would you pay if in same situation? even if just for the satisfaction? as i stand resolute on this thread against prime and sub-prime evil, be it maurice mq or cb ilaine, i exercise same energy on truly effective evil in the course of doing joyful 3d work all the same. recommendation: do not write checks for private equity deals situated in the desert which are papered in 4 legal domains founded and managed by who really are just strangers but should you have done so, make sure you have the important telephone number, 1.800.get.me.out :0) whenever my dad-in-law asks me "how is it going?", i respond "terrible, but wonderful" :0)

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (64058)	6/10/2010 5:18:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217662

just in in-tray, per GREED n fear · World financial markets remain jittery and GREED & fear remains risk averse with newsflow from Euroland remaining the most obvious area to trigger renewed corrections. Spain remains the most likely source of bad news in coming weeks and months with the trigger likely to be growing revelations of the scale of bad debts in the Spanish banking system. · So far the price action suggests that the ECB has only been buying Greek, Portuguese and perhaps Irish government paper through its Securities Markets Programme. Still it may only be a matter of time before it is forced to buy Spanish government paper also. With the ECB still reluctant to commit to full scale quantitative easing, the likelihood is that the markets will, sooner or later, have to sell off more to test the resolve of the ECB. · European banks from a credit standpoint have done much less to own up to the bad debts stemming from the 2007-2008 credit crisis than their American counterparts, just as they now face up to the prospect of a new wave of bad debts resulting from their funding of the more debt infested parts of Europe. · The Chinese government is likely to maintain its tightening policy towards the residential property market through to the end of the third quarter at a minimum, primarily because there is as yet no clear evidence that the property prices have started falling. GREED & fear’s view is that PRC leadership will want to see price cuts of 20% or more in the likes of Beijing and Shanghai before considering a change in policy. · But the zeal to tighten in China will likely decline dramatically if Euroland really blows up in coming months, in terms of an Asian Crisis-style domino effect. For then the Chinese Government will do everything to counter the threat of a double dip. · The wage hikes forced on Foxconn are a signal that wages will be rising throughout coastal China, as will minimum wage levels. GREED & fear views this primarily more as a positive for consumption than as a negative for exporters’ margins. · The best way to ease the undeniable social tensions triggered by China’s property boom is to develop a social housing policy. Still, the national government will have to take the initiative since at the moment neither local governments nor private developers are incentivised to build such low cost housing. · GREED & fear continues to believe that the correction in China, and therefore Asia, has further to run with 2300 on the Shanghai Composite Index still viewed as the likely support level. The index is unlikely to rally unless the property stocks commence a real rally. · There is no doubt that the more news from Euroland deteriorates the more pressure will come from the export lobby to delay renminbi appreciation. For now there is very little visibility on this issue because the leadership is watching what happens in Euroland. · Investors should also not ignore the growing deflationary signals in America even as investors are focused on the admittedly for now greater deflationary risks in Euroland. The deflationary risk in the US is indicated by both the recent rally in Treasury bonds and also by declining money supply growth. · It is not as easy to inflate out of a debt bust as many mechanical monetarists still seem to believe. GREED & fear’s longstanding view is that the 2007/2008 credit risks marked the “super-cycle” peak in post-1945 private sector debt accumulation in the West. The resilience of gold in recent days, when the commodity complex is down, shows that mainstream investors are beginning to understand that gold is a financial asset and not a commodity. · GREED & fear views the latest 25% public holding rule for listed companies in India as a long-term structural positive which will also boost India’s weighting in the MSCI benchmark indices. Still in the short term there are clearly negative supply implications though the projected level of equity supply is not particularly onerous. · India is likely to grow faster than China for the next five years, say 9% plus per annum, if an infrastructure cycle kicks in. Whereas in China, the trend growth rate is 8-9% at best, and that assumes bravely a gradual albeit successful transition to a more consumption driven economy as the export sector fails to return to its former glory days. · Hong Kong, with its limited land supply and US dollar peg, remains the quintessential asset-reflation story in Asia; though it is also true that recent policy changes mean that supply will increase slightly in coming years from the currently historically low levels. · While the cost-cutting zeal of corporate Japan is impressive from an earnings standpoint, it re-enforces the deflationary dynamic which continues to hold sway in Japan. The Japanese example shows that deleveraging periods can go on for a very long time. That is not good news for the West. Please consider the environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.