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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (133667)	6/8/2010 10:10:16 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206191

Aplomb U.S. Onshore Logging While Investing OFS Weekly Analysis 40 pages, 31 exhibits Link: sendspace.com Excerpts: U.S. onshore aplomb: We may have misstepped recently in our weekly three weeks ago, titled “U.S. Onshore Permits: Over the Crest.” Since then, permit averages have remained steady and not down enough from a peak five weeks ago to convince us that a roll in activity is starting. We wonder how long the (oil and liquids-boosted) resiliency lasts, as permits now suggest activity stability into 2H10. . . . Our take on the group. We see enduring value in exposure to non-NAM markets (we look for signs of spending growth to emerge more strongly after mid-year), which continues to steer our preferences — both nearer term and longer term — to diversified services, land-based construction, and strongly free cash-flowing offshore drillers. Having said that, the Macondo disaster has the potential to meaningfully undermine upstream spending momentum, most obviously in offshore markets. We await better clarity of the impacts before recommending buying the group, despite the recent sell-off, with our preferences within the group of onshore, oily exposed names. NOV is also reasonably distanced from direct Macondo impact, in our view and has some momentum in recent rig tendering progress in Brazil. Our top picks, with investment theses unrelated to the well disaster, are as follows. In diversified service large caps, HAL (top pick) and SLB appear well positioned to outperform in the nearer term, particularly with 1Q10 caution already being reflected in shares. We prefer NE among drillers. And in European OFS, we favor the defensiveness (including versus expectations) and backlog outlook for onshore-exposed names including PFC.L.