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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (10764)	6/4/2010 1:46:48 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24235

"If This Is Peak Oil, Then I’m Not Sure What The Problem Is" some variation of this, combined with uninspired lunacy... I think there is something to this graph if one assumes that the size of the economy is directly correlated to oil and other fossil fuel use: One of Hirsch's papers estimates a 1:1 contraction of the economy as oil declines. I don't see it that way. I don't see a gradual decline but instead it will be like the Staircase Model. Also, my intuition is that the shift from a growing economy to a contracting economy basically means "no more significant renewable energy projects get rolled out." In other words, I'm expecting that we will experience more of a switch flipping states than a gradual decline in capital availability. The capital simply won't be available for the giant renewable installations that have any hope of matching the fossil fuel energy we currently use. (Instead I foresee much of the increasingly scarce capital being allocated to keep our failing infrastructure in some form of workability. The municipal governments are already entering this phase in the United States.) Individuals, families and some communities might be able to muster enough capital for highly decentralized, lower-cost renewable energy generation, though. Just to be clear: in my view, countries will occasionally produce big renewable energy projects but nothing close to the 1:2 ratio majorian describes above. I'm expecting more like 1:20 (i.e. we lose 20 units of fossil energy for every unit of renewable energy that comes online). Another way of saying this, if my "capital switching off" theory is correct, is that we really blew it. aangel on June 4, 2010 - 12:08pm start back here with graphs theoildrum.com