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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (38179)	6/5/2010 12:14:51 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78481

Spekulatius. BK. Am losing some courage here regarding some stock posts -- a low pride/shame ratio (in my mind) on some making me reluctant to post. Possibly an indication I can't make a convincing case even to myself that such a stock is a value buy. BK is one. I'm in @$26.90 though as of June 1st for a most small tracking position. That price is a bit less than the $27/sh the $700M stock issuance went at. There aren't that many security services firms - STT, NTRS, BK -- And these large companies get benefits of size as they make acquisitions (a consolidating sector - companies get big or get out.) The attractions for me are that barriers seem high for new entrants into the securities servicing arena, and the business seems like it's not going to be obsoleted. Not sure here, but it appears to me, BK et. al. just take a small slice from their customer firms' assets they service. The customer firms' customers (individual stockholder/pensioners, etc.) never even are aware of this haircut. Perhaps a kind of toll business that would appeal to a Warren Buffett. Not that BK's record is stellar. ROE is punk, stated book value hasn't done much in past four years, and BK dividend is small. Plus, BK has an asset management business; and of course, on days or times like now, where people want out of stocks, equity asset management firms - BK and others - are for sure sold down too. It just seems to me that BK has viable (growing) business prospects over time -- or at least not decreasing prospects, and as the company does okay, the stock will improve from current relatively-low levels.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (38179)	6/7/2010 3:26:21 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78481

re ORRF - did a U-turn and sold ORRF at a tiny profit. I realized after updating my files that I overlooked a larger exposure to construction loans (110M$) and an increase in the 30-89Days late for the last quarter. Still, this is not a bad bank - they did a secondary at 27$ a while ago for 40M$ at a good premium to tangible book. ORRF is 4* rated in safe and sound.