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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maverick who wrote (21605)	11/6/1997 6:31:00 PM
From: Bosco	Respond to of 61433

Mav - while I'd like to subscribe to your #s, I think the real object of pessimism is the mgt team that cannot get the story straight. For instance, what Mssr Bernie Schneider said today, as reported by Briefing.com et al, is not the same as 2 days ago. 2 days ago, he said 10% Q to Q revenue growth for the next several Qs. So, here we go again! Of course, the Mory & the crew (6 of them) selling the stk while the street helped to float the buyout rumor probably don't seat too well with a lot of folks either. The question is this. Why are the top execs chose to shoot themselves in the foot again and again. Can't they just let the CFO's stmt (as of yesterday) stand - that they will (at least try to) meet next Q and next FY estimates - and go about doing their real business, namely, to improve the efficiency of the co, to resolve technical glitches, and to calm the nerve of its customers. Those are more crucial in righting the ship than to micro manage Wallstreet (especially when Mory blew the street people off only a few wks ago!) I mean, these execs must be eating some really bad sushi! Btw, while I do not like seeing insider selling, IMHO, that is not the worst sin. Not able to focus on their business, that is not worst part. <light bulb> Now, I ve a novel theory about these amateur dealing. Mory and the crew may be afraid of a hostile takeover; therefore, they set out to make the co so UNATTRACTIVE that noone wants it. What do you think <VVVBG> rgds Bosco

To: Maverick who wrote (21605)	11/6/1997 6:54:00 PM
From: Andreas Samson	Respond to of 61433

Maverick, I'm reposting this from this AM...I'm coming up with lower numbers than you... Taking the Schneider statements at face value, I'm interpreting mid-to-high single digit rev. growth, increasing 'closer to 10 percent in the second half of 1998,' as 5%>6.5%>8%>10% for the next four quarters. Which translates into quarterly revenues of $283.5>$302>$326>$358. Using the operating margins set forth by Merrill Lynch provided by Maverick (http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-16625/reply-478) I'm getting earnings of .22>.24>.26>.29 (rounding off), or forward EPS of $1.01, P/E of 26, overall growth of 32%. This would tend to conflict with Ashby's statement projecting estimates of $1.15 to $1.20 a share in FY98, except my calculation wouldn't include 4Q98, and is pegged to a conservative interpretation of the phrase 'mid-to-high single digits.' The Fool Ratio, for those who use it, would be .8125, not a terribly strong buy signal. I'm seeing full and fair value of $32. Also, part of the ML calculation presupposed investment interest of $6M/quarter. A stock buyback, an employee buyout (to cut costs), or a RAS price war, could cut into cash on hand, reducing interest income, ergo EPS. ALL OF THIS, is of course based on management's ability to fulfill its prognostications for the upcoming year, a sticky little point which, alas, remains open to debate.