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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neeka who wrote (367866)	6/7/2010 6:54:21 PM
From: Alan Smithee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 794271

Woo Hoo!!! Let's hope this holds - Rossi gains edge over Murray in updated poll Kyung M. Song WASHINGTON -- Was it a post-publicity bump or a harbinger for the November election? That's the question raised by the release Monday morning of updated results of a poll which shows Dino Rossi edging out Sen. Patty Murray among the most recent survey of registered voters. According to The Washington Poll, conducted annually by the University of Washington, registered Washington voters who were polled during the week of May 24 -- when Rossi finally made official his widely rumored candidacy for the U.S. Senate -- preferred Rossi over Murray 42 percent to 39 percent. That compares to Murray's 44 percent to 40 percent advantage in the much larger sample polled during the previous three weeks. Matt Barreto, associate professor of political science at UW who directs the poll, speculated that wide media coverage of Rossi's entry into the race bumped up his numbers. "I think it is a result of Rossi leading the news almost every day the week of May 24, and that gave him a boost that week," Barreto said. "It is unlikely that many voters switched directly from Murray to Rossi, but rather some who may have supported Murray said 'undecided,' and some undecideds went for Rossi." Barreto cautioned that the post-announcement poll results are based on just 222 respondents, giving it a margin of error of 6.6 percent. Murray still retains her overall edge among likely voters, those who voted in the 2006 mid-term election. Forty six percent of them said they would vote for the three-term Democratic incumbent, compared to 40 percent for Rossi. And the combined results of all 1,695 registered voters polled during four weeks in May showed Murray edging out Rossi 42 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error for that question was 3.3 percent. Barreto previously told me that the key to any Rossi victory would rest with independent voters. And thus far, Rossi hasn't attracted enough of them to have a shot at unseating Murray, Barreto said. Barreto estimated that Rossi would need to draw about 55 percent of independents' votes, far more than the 41 percent he commanded in the poll.