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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (108771)	6/14/2010 5:31:08 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Glad it was helpful. But for various interventions and an era of CONfidence etc., in my opinion the 10 year would be far higher. After a correction based on shadowstats work the 10 year minus 3 month yield curve is currently about -10%. Even after just a CPI only correction, its about -2.5%. Best guess at this point, before it starts up the unemployment rate has to be falling recognizably and the Fed has to not be fighting a rise via the Securities Lending Open Market Operations and neither are close to happening (the Fed has a lot more power & money than the small amount of bond vigilantes around these days)... yet. Probably a lot more folk need to see real inflation as you noted too.

To: TH who wrote (108771)	6/15/2010 11:50:57 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

TH, i listened to a recent interview on kingworldnews.com and the guy has a theory i think is most likely. the economy is in serious deflation - that will continue. the government is running serious inflationary policies - even if geared toward cronyism. this will continue until we get into trouble far worse than the credit crunch and lehman collapse. at that point, the government will be broke in addition to the private sector. this is when the IMF and WB criminals step up as "saviors" and cut both debt and wealth - perhaps with a new world currency of some sort. also of note is he predicted short term rates to stay near zero up until the collapse, but he expected the long bond to go haywire at some point within the next 12 months. he said we shouldn't expect 70s style deflation - the cracks will last a very short time and then complete collapse.