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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (253604)	6/11/2010 4:12:12 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

Ridiculous to ever call bottoms in national home prices. During the RTC fiasco home prices appeared to have bottomed as early as 1989 in TX and as late as 1997 in SoCal. Condos in FL crashed big like a 50% haircut from 1986-88 and actually started rising after Hurricane Andrew in 1992. This time out I can tell you home prices in ground zero Ft Myers area bottomed or were right near it by third quarter 2008 with the real damage in the prior 30 months which goes down as probably the greatest crash ever in home prices in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres. Most of the rest of FL from everything I look at bottomed in first quarter 2009. Other markets like Manhattan or coastal CA my crystal ball from a distance tells me might not really hit bottom for many more years, are still way overvalued but with fewer motivated sellers and more sensitive to a different set of factors that drive values there. So if prices drift down slowly another 20-25% by 2015 while rates go up 3% in that time is that really a big deal to the economy or even someone thinking of buying in those places?