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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robnhood who wrote (9294)	11/7/1997 3:03:00 AM
From: marcos	Respond to of 94695

canoe2.canoe.ca Yes, the banks, that's my thing. They've been good to us for a year now. This guy Keating in this article, I get his updates on-line, he's been a bank bull for at least two years now, but is starting to be more selective and cautious. After all, how high is up? His point for a while has been that bank P/Es are more attractive than the TSE average, but the gap has narrowed some, even on forward FY98. Another measure he uses is yield as compared to bonds, and from that they look good, but if loan losses (now quite low) rise as bond yields rise, they won't look so great, this is important as significant money flows between the two. "I'm gonna guess their weak point,,,derivatives" Keating calls this "securities risk" and gives a decent breakdown of it. BNS has big Asian exposure, and of course BMO has Busang exposure -g-. Much of this in most cases (varies widely) is "securitized" and is bally-hooed to provide some protection on the downside, but you just know that if and when the market takes a dip, the banks go down with it. Thinking of letting a little more CM go, today was beyond reason. Or maybe my first-ever short, since that way there's no taxes on gains, what I have now I bought right after O&Y went down, and would just as soon keep long-term. Asia down again, hang onto your shorts -g- ........ cheers .... marcos PS .... speaking of Asia; afr.com.au