To: Roebear who wrote (106 ) 11/7/1997 3:01:00 PM From: Terrence Von Holidae Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 629
Roebear: Thank you for the piece. I do not agree entirely with the comments made, but we are in an enviorment of currency crises throughout the world. The failure in the Princeton reasoning is in the belief the dollar will soar in value as the rest of the world contends with currency and financials crises. Quite the contrary, as Asia, and for that matter, any region disposed to pegging their currency to ours,and or, in possession of our securities, debt or equity, undergoes further deterioration in their own financial markets, they will be compelled to distribute those US assets in favor of supporting their own, including their own currencies. Thus, I believe in the wake of distribution of US denominated assets: US currency, debt instruments, both corporate and governmental, to support their own economies, the rest of the world will put enormous pressure on our financial markets. As bond yields rise in the wake of selling pressure, because the dollar is weakening in the face of selling to support domestic currencies elsewhere, it will become apparent our instruments of value are not neccessarily a haven of safety. Indeed,it is quite illogical for the rest of the world to place credit risk in any currency, much less one that is issued by a power with a net-trade imbalance of 1.5 trillion dollars, and a fiscal debt of 4.5 trillion dollars. In effect, the world is scrambling for a storehouse of secure value believing, temporaraily, it lies in our currency and debt. They certainly have not yet come to the conclusion that it is gold, a commodity of value that has proven far more durable than any state's presumed storehouse of value: their own currency. This is especially so, in view of the repeated devaluation our own currency has taken in the past 40-years, not excluding the precious metal content that today is no longer present. Indeed, our currency, and its proxy, debt security, is a weak likeness of any storehouse of value. Ask yourself, would you lend something of value to someone knowing that the person had a 25-year history of borrowing even more on the promise of making good again, someday? And, on top of that, returning property of lesser extrinsic and intrinsic value, than that originally borrowed? It is most ironic, that now as these events unfold, gold ends its 20-year bear market on an especially bleak note, but creating considerable opportunity for those looking askance at the absence of interest in the metal. It made good sense to own gold in the year 2,000 b.c., and it will make good sense again in the year 2,000 a.d. At the present, that is what I am betting on. Therefore, I think the article has a great deal of merit, but has drawn at least one inconsistent long-term conclusion from the evidence at hand. Yours, T.V.H. PS. HL traded today at 4 15/16. Very inexpensive, indeed.