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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (10489)	11/6/1997 10:51:00 PM
From: davesd	Respond to of 70976

Asian markets don't seem very happy...they are down several percentage points... dave

To: Paul V. who wrote (10489)	11/7/1997 11:30:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

Paul, I think Wall Street is more rational than you give it credit. AMAT moved from 60 to 108 as 98 concensus EPS predictions rose to $4.30, maintaining a forward PE of 25. The current price decline reflects increased nervousness about the accuracy of 98 forecasts. In 2000-01, the Street will factor in the effects of the 5 year up cycle and is likely to place a lower PE on forward earnings than the 25 accorded at the start of the cycle. I think a forward PE estimate of 20 is required for a rational, conservative analysis. A 49 PE provides a "pie in the sky" scenario. Cary