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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cluka who wrote (48246)	6/15/2010 6:27:25 PM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95648

<You are confusing apples and oranges. "New Normal" means different level of economic activity in different sectors of economy. I'm not really confusing it and I think some of his economic points may have some validity. But this is basically an investing board and the fact is he has used his new normal notion as one reason why he's been mostly bearish on the market. Last year when the bull got going but we were far lower than we are today, El-Erian's catch phrase was we were on a sugar high and the rally didn't make sense based on fundamentals of the economy. He may be a little less dour then a Nouriel Roubini but as far as a market view he's become just another bear that missed most of the massive bull market off the bottom. In fact I think there are a bunch of dour bears out there who became celebrated for being bearish in 2008. The fact is the only reason they looked smart for a while was because the government insanely let Lehman go down plunging us into the first true financial panic since 1907. That after they properly realized they had no choice but to rescue Long Term Capital in 1998 and Bear in 2008. Well, with Lehman due to ideological pressure from both the right and the left Hank Paulson came out and said no more bailouts and then when they couldn't get a buyer they let Lehman fail. So now they did the experiment, it was a catastrophe and it's why while we were able to avoid another great depression we still have near 10% unemployment even after the Fed and the Treasury took extraordinary measures to avoid an all out depression. In fact we even had a second negative black swan event with that insane oil spike to $145 which softened us up before the death blow of Lehman. So you had these bears out there that looked like geniuses after Lehman but they've been dead wrong about the market and economy ever since. Once it was clear the Fed and and administration was aggressively mitigating the Lehman damage and keeping us out of a depression, these dour bears never changed their tune that much and have been mostly wrong ever since.