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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill who wrote (571817)6/15/2010 6:55:38 PM
From: FJB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1578646
 
What is it like eight rounds now since the spill started?

What a lazy piece of garbage he is...



To: Bill who wrote (571817)6/15/2010 6:55:51 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 1578646
 
Have Republicans Already Blown Their Chance to Recapture The Senate?

With nearly five months to go until Election Day, Republican hopes of retaking the Senate have dimmed and they're privately lamenting their lost opportunity. Until just a few weeks ago, Republicans considered winning a Senate majority a long shot but by no means out of reach. But the euphoria over Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts in January seems a distant memory now, especially after the latest round of primary results last week.

Primary victories by Carly Fiorina in California and Sharron Angle in Nevada bolstered a growing national narrative that Republican candidates are lightweights, or too outside the mainstream, to survive in the fall, and that could harm even top tier Republicans.

"There's now a path to 'acceptable losses' for Democrats," notes one cautiously optimistic Democratic strategist.

"I totally see how the number stops at five to seven [Republican pickups]" says a Republican consultant, speaking of an optimistic scenario for the GOP.

"Nevada is the one place that fundamentally changed," says a top GOP consultant, who now predicts Harry Reid will be re-elected. "I don't think Angle can win personally."
Professional GOPers are split over whether California Republicans elected the best possible candidate in Carly Fiorina, but broadly speaking there's little thought given any longer to the idea that Barbara Boxer's seat is still in play.

The Republicans still have obvious pick ups. Barring a major shakeup, North Dakota, Indiana, and Arkansas all lean strongly Republican. In Delaware, Rep. Mike Castle (R) has a commanding lead over Democrat Chris Coons. But Coons is a tireless campaigner, and will soon be drawing out the big guns, including a forthcoming fundraising visit from Vice President, and former Delaware Senator, Joe Biden.

A tier below that, though, and the picture becomes murky. Colorado is anybody's guess, as is Pennsylvania. The top Republican strategist worries about what happens if Pennsylvania "becomes a race between a decorated Navy Admiral [Democrat Joe Sestak] and a Wall Street guy [Republican Pat Toomey]."

Colorado still has a primary to resolve, but if Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet defeats his challenger Andrew Romanoff, polls show him closing in on Republican rival Jane Norton.

Illinois features a race between a flawed Republican candidate--Mark Kirk, who's been caught exaggerating his military record repeatedly--and a flawed Democratic candidate--Alexi Giannoulias, whose family owns a bank that was recently seized by the Feds. But Kirk's missteps have acutely harmed him, according to recent polls, leading the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling to conclude "It's hard to see this race as anything but a pure tossup at this juncture but in Illinois a race between a flawed Democrat and a flawed Republican is probably going to end up in the Democratic column, and Giannoulias' 5 point gain relative to Kirk in the 10 weeks reflects that."

Democrats in Washington state (Murray), Wisconsin (Feingold), and Connecticut (Blumenthal) are safe for now. And Republicans have a couple vulnerabilities of their own.

Popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist is running an increasingly liberal campaign in Florida as an independent against Republican Senate hopeful Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek.

And then there's Louisiana, where for the first time since a major sex scandal, Sen. David Vitter (R) will have to face the voters. For the time being, he remains solidly ahead. If you believe the Republican firm Magellan strategies, he leads Democrat Charlie Melancon by 20 points. But a Democratic PPP poll due out tomorrow has Vitter up by only 9 (46-37). And that's before the Democrats have taken aim at Vitter's troubled past.

In a sneak preview for TPM of the Democrats' strategy, a Louisiana strategist says Dems and their surrogates will both directly remind voters of Vitter's transgressions, and use that history, along with his voting record, to dominate the female vote.

"I think you'll see Democrats and outside groups, including disaffected Republicans, members of the Tea Party movement, reminding folks about Vitter's scandal," the Democratic strategist told me.

The revelation that Vitter had frequented prostitutes came at the best (or least harmful) possible time for him, years before his next election. But once voters are reminded of the details, Democrats hope they'll be able to capitalize, particularly with women.

"[T]here will be devastating television ads and mailers pointing out that Vitter voted against equal pay for women, he voted against a law designed to help rape victims, to make sure rape victims get their day in court, he voted against SCHIP--in Louisiana called LACHIP--and consistently voted against female nominees," the strategist added.

Add to that the fact that the general election field is likely to be peppered with conservative underdogs--including a libertarian candidate and a Tea Party-backed independent--all of whom should take votes away from Vitter, and it's not hard to imagine that race becoming competitive in the end.

Late update: Fiorina spokeswoman Liz Mair emails in with comment: "One of the things that Washington, DC-based political consultants consistently underestimate is just how bad the economic situation is in California, and just how little California voters think Barbara Boxer has done to ameliorate it. Statewide unemployment is running at 12.6%. In some municipalities, it is approaching 30%. The Central Valley has struggled from a protracted water crisis that Barbara Boxer has done nothing to alleviate, and which has turned a major agricultural area into a de facto dustbowl. To DC-based consultants, Boxer is objectionable because she is a an extreme left-wing ideologue. To Californians, she is objectionable because her record is one of 28 straight years of failure, and right now, Californians are paying the highest possible price for bad economic policy that Barbara Boxer--incredibly--considers a success.

tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com



To: Bill who wrote (571817)6/15/2010 6:58:15 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1578646
 
The president is going to speak tonite. I suggest you listen.......



To: Bill who wrote (571817)6/15/2010 7:06:54 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 1578646
 
Lobbyists Can't Get in Door

Wall Street Finds It Hard to Reach Lawmakers to Lobby on Financial Overhaul

By AARON LUCCHETTI And DAMIAN PALETTA

Wall Street's lobbying army is marching around Washington in a push to shape the final financial-overhaul bill. But it has gotten harder to get through the door with some lawmakers.

One bank has complained that it no longer has access to House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.), whose schedule has filled up to accommodate negotiations with his Senate counterparts during the next two weeks.

Mr. Frank and the top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, Rep. Spencer Bachus (R., Ala.), also have postponed scheduled fund-raising events since the conference held its first meeting on Thursday.
Messrs. Frank and Bachus are among 43 lawmakers responsible for hammering out differences in the bill, which will have a broad impact on how banks are regulated and do business.

There are three reasons why bending the ear of lawmakers suddenly has become a bigger challenge for financial-services industry lobbyists.
Some lawmakers want to avoid even the slightest appearance that Wall Street is getting one last chance to throw its weight and money around on key provisions of the bill, including toughened oversight and other banking and securities cash cows.

Some lawmakers also have said they have little time to listen to outside lobbyists, particularly since Democrats are hoping to have the financial-overhaul bill signed into law by July 4. Mr. Frank, for example, hasn't ruled out face-to-face meetings, but his legislative schedule is packed, according to a person familiar with the matter. He still is holding meetings by phone.


The House Financial Services Committee's top Republican, Rep. Spencer Bachus (R., Ala.), left, confers with the panel's chairman, Barney Frank (D., Mass.), in April.
Meanwhile, some banks have been told that their views are known already, given the long debate over how many legislative changes are needed in response to the financial crisis.

Not surprisingly, banks and securities firms still are pressing their case. Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Brian Moynihan recently met with White House officials in Washington. A few weeks ago, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chairman and CEO James Dimon made a series of phone calls to lawmakers to argue that several provisions of the bill could damage the banking system and overall economy.

"The closer you get to the end of the process, the more intense everyone's efforts get," says William Sweet, a partner at law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. "A lot of people are losing sleep." Mr. Sweet isn't lobbying on the bill.

In the first quarter, the latest period for which figures are available, the securities and investment industry spent $28 million on lobbying, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Some of that spending likely is funding part of the current lobbying push.

If the first quarter's pace continues through the rest of 2010, the industry's total lobbying would surpass by 18% the all-time high set in 2008.


Conference members have seven other fund-raising events scheduled this month, according to the Sunlight Foundation, a group that tracks such events. Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D., N.Y.), for example, still plans to hold a $2,400-a-person reception on June 23 at the Carole King and James Taylor concert at Washington's Verizon Center.

A campaign spokesman said there was nothing improper about Ms. Maloney continuing to hold fund raisers while negotiating final details of the financial-regulation bill.

In recent weeks, many banks and securities firms have narrowed their lobbying efforts to two or three core issues that could hurt them the most if the legislation forces changes in their business strategy or operational structure.

The more-targeted approach contrasts with grumbling by some executives that more than a dozen parts of the House and Senate bills could spell big trouble for financial firms.

"There is a lot of discussion," says Kenneth Bentsen, executive vice president and top lobbyist at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the biggest Wall Street trade group.

The group has winnowed down its own concerns to the thorniest issues, many of which are "technical," Mr. Bentsen says, and could hinge on specific language about how rules triggered by the legislation should be implemented.

For example, the Senate bill passed last month contains two provisions that are being hotly contested by financial firms. The first provision, by Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D., Ark.), would force banks that accept federally insured deposits and other aid to sever their derivatives arms. Derivatives are privately negotiated, loosely regulated contracts that fluctuate in value based on myriad financial instruments and scenarios.

On Monday, Ms. Lincoln clarified the proposal, saying that bank-holding companies could spin off their derivatives businesses into affiliates and not completely jettison these operations. But banks are still worried about the impact and costs.

Derivatives have been a particular focus of regulators, given their opacity and culpability in the financial crisis. Critics of the Lincoln proposal, including some financial regulators, contend that the effort to separate derivatives units underestimates the importance of such instruments in helping clients of banks manage legitimate financial risks.

Other changes to derivatives, such as forcing more of the contracts to trade on exchanges, are viewed by some financial-industry executives as more palatable and potentially effective. Some in Washington have suggested blending Ms. Lincoln's proposal with a separate Senate provision to restrict proprietary trading known as the Volcker rule.

Both provisions are aimed at keeping banks out of excessively risky businesses. Some Wall Street bankers warn that the current language of the Volcker rule, named for former Federal Reserve chief Paul Volcker, now an adviser to President Barack Obama, might restrict banks from putting small amounts of money in asset-management vehicles such as hedge funds. Such a change likely would please banking regulators but annoy investment clients who like to see banks put some of their own money into the same products and services pitched to clients.

Other provisions would protect municipalities doing business with Wall Street and make banks hold onto some of the consumer loans they sell to investors.

Meanwhile, one of the bill's original ideas—setting up a new process for the government to wind down a failing large financial institution—is less-contested because the House and Senate agree about the major points.

—Dan Fitzpatrick contributed to this article.
Write to Aaron Lucchetti at aaron.lucchetti@wsj.com and Damian Paletta at damian.paletta@wsj.com

online.wsj.com