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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe E. who wrote (2674)	11/6/1997 11:11:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Respond to of 6136

Subject: When to sell Date: Thu, Nov 6, 1997 13:43 EST From: LMoss Message-id: <19971106184300.NAA15869@ladder01.news.aol.com> A good question, JoeE3, and not one that is simple to answer. Some factors to consider are: 1. What discount rate was used in the intrinsic value calculation? I used 30% in the AGPH calculation, which means that even if AGPH were trading today at its estimated value of about $150/share, with no change in fundamentals that value would increase by 30%/yr. If this was eventually reflected in its market price, most investors would be happy with that return. 2. What is the individual investor's opportunity cost of capital? In other words, what return can he or she expect from alternative investments with comparable risk? 3. What are the tax consequences of a sale? I hate to have to consider this in the deployment and allocation of capital, but unfortunately it is a fact of life that can affect after-tax return. 4. What are the current market conditions? I like to sell when everyone else feels they have to buy. Note that items (2) and (3) are specific to an individual investor, so when to sell is not the same time for everyone. This list is not complete, but it is a good start. In my case, with no change in fundamentals, I would want a price close to $200/share before I would consider selling my core holdings in AGPH. This price will increase with time. LMoss

To: Joe E. who wrote (2674)	11/6/1997 11:15:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Respond to of 6136

Yes, it is very likely it will take a few more weeks as originally thought, Elise must have rcvd this word because I noticed she has the Q1 time for approval. L. Moss' post: Subject: Euro approval Date: Thu, Nov 6, 1997 16:24 EST From: LMoss Message-id: Agouron CEO Peter Johnson stated at the annual meeting today that European approval to sell Viracept was expected in the first calendar quarter of 1998. Late January or early February would be my best estimate. LMoss I agree with a conservative estimate of late Jan.

To: Joe E. who wrote (2674)	11/7/1997 2:10:00 AM
From: billkirn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

John: Heard the same info at meeting. 1st Q on European. Also stated time line 2001 for ag3340. Little heart to heart with director and he is very excited about progress. Very interesting and unique about 3340; no side effects yet found, dosing levels just about established, and the most important thing is that it will be taken with normal treatment methods so enrollment will be easy to obtain. I got the feeling ag3340 is something very special, and will beat their public time lines. I still really respect Peter Johnson. My money is in the right place for the long term. Bill