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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Investor2 who wrote (5768)6/18/2010 4:27:53 AM
From: westpacific  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26251
 
This first down pattern should take a few months to play out; on the 5 low I am thinking around SPX 900. The test of the megaphone channel and the E.
INDU 9000
Right now the 2 high in formation so the 5 low in the next few months...

C low; INDU/SPX projecting October 2011 lows just below March 2009 lows.

The market could churn around for ahile first...10750ish seems max pain. 10729 would really create the better right shoulder on this topping pattern and think this is what we see soon. It still needs more development!
10688 into 10729
-there is even room for a spike higher in the Dome to the 11000 area

If the chart is right; long slow grind downward off this 1219 top coming in the next year and a half and could always breakdown when least expected.

Then we rally into a new cycle; this whole process is stairstepping down 4 year cycles (Kitchin Cycles) now and expect one more from October 2011 into October 2015 with a potential to stretch it to a 5 year cyle into 2016.

Deflation ends there; this will mark the final lows and the end of the Superdome Cycle.

To finish this Super Dome Cycle that started back in 1980s; this final low should be near the start of it; 2,000 into 4,000 but Prechter could be right in his triple digit call on a panic low spike!

So thinking October 2011 rally back into the 7000s, should see some sort of top out 2013; then back down to the wipe out lows and the finish of the cycle. Grinding around for a few years in this 5500/6000 range (target 2011 low) and staying below 7600 in 2012 and 2013.
2011 Target low
5500 area INDU 606 SPX

That said; we are facing other projections...

WW3 start Nov 2010
Arch Crawford end of civilization May to Nov 2010
Maya Cycle late 2012

Hard to say when it could all go to *ell...

W