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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (48305)	6/19/2010 6:05:36 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95396

VIX, and China: VIX is coming off its highest spike in a year, and is now back in the 15-30 channel it was in from mid-2007 through mid-2008. Before that, in 2005-2006, the channel was 10-20. There has been a series of lower lows for the VIX, ever since it hit 90 back in 2008, and I expect that trend will continue, till we return to the 10-20 channel. There will continue to be spikes in the VIX, once every month or two, that will be buying opportunities. The VIX hitting lows isn't necessarily a selling opportunity. During bull markets, the VIX can stay low (and stocks keep going up) for extended periods. China: This is about the only chart that looks like a bear market. The period from the July 2009 highs to today, looks a lot like the period after the October 2007 highs: lower highs and lower lows, plunging below the 200dma, 50dma crossing below the 200dma. China in a bear market, will be confirmed if the 50dma becomes a resistance line, as it was all through 2008. This has implications for all those industries that are depending on China for their growth. If Chinese consumers decrease spending, I doubt Japan or Europe or the U.S. will pick up the slack.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (48305)	7/21/2010 2:30:34 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95396

Sold all my ASML at 31 today. I doubt I will be buying it back, this cycle. The just-announced results were excellent. Record everything. Raised guidance. On the CC, I could hear them humming in the background youtube.com But the chart is singing a different song: looks suspiciously like early 2008 36$ = double top, 2010 and 2007 highs fell below the 200dma 2 1/2 months ago failed in June, and again in July, to get back above the 200dma 50dma below 200dma So...either the market knows something I don't, or all possible good news is already in the stock. So I'm out. Bought RIG (offshore oil driller) with the cash from ASML. This is part of a trend in my portfolio, out of semis and semi-equips, and into energy (oil, drillers, wind, solar). ASML: RIG: