Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Honey_Bee who wrote (5272)	6/23/2010 6:41:52 PM
From: marc ultra	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

<Like you, Bob Brinker enjoys making demeaning comments about women. I think your comment is rather demeaning in that you're willing to twist my words into a pretzel in order to use it as a straw man. I will however give you a non-apology apology which is in fashion these days so if anyone felt offended by what I said then I apologize for them feeling that way. If anyone would have gotten offended by my post I would have sooner thought it would have been nursing home residents or child molesters. As to your point that Brinker missed the last bear that's obviously true not only for him but of most market timers who use fundamentals rather than technicals. We had essentially 2 black swan events that wouldn't be picked up in his model or by me. The first was that ridiculous oil spike to $145 that further weakened an economy that had been sluggish but OK. Then with with that weakness as a background we had the greatest governmental policy mistake since the Depression in letting Lehman go down. Previously with Long Term Capital in 1998 and with Bear in 2008 it was realized it was far too dangerous to let them go down. Well now they did the experiment and let Lehman go down and we were immediately plunged into the first true financial panic since 1907. So while losing a fortune I analyzed the situation including carefully looking at what happened in the panic of 1907. Once we saw that very aggressive stimulus and extraordinary actions by the Fed and some from the Treasury would successfully mitigate the damage from Lehman and keep us out of a depression, then looking at the factors Bob uses it became clear we were on the verge of a massive bull market. Once we got that final downturn to S&P 666 with that final bear raid on the financials in March 2009, the week after the bottom I posted elsewhere that we started a new cyclical bull that would be a minimum of 50% gain and could be 100% like the bull from the 2002 bottom to the 2007 top. In fact we had about an 80% gain already before this healthy correction. If one looked at what happened in 1907 we basically had a repeat once Lehman went down. Like in the Panic of 1907 the next year to the surprise of most was a year of huge stock market gains and the economy was improving by the later part of the year. With the added comfort that Bob noted his long term timing model was positive I was very aggressively long and made back in 2009 what I lost in 2008. Market timing is not easy. Why are you obsessed with Bob? Are you mad at Nouriel Roubini who kept talking about a multi-year nuclear winter or all the stock market experts who were posting charts when we were at the March lows that showed how we were surely headed for a Great Depression? Bob's long term timing model remains by far the best I've seen. Is he perfect? No. Did he use to come off arrogant at times when he was younger? I think that's fair. I listen to what everyone I respect has to say and analyze things for myself and act accordingly. I've found nobody more helpful in me doing that successfully than Bob. So if it makes you happy then swim in obsessive dislike for Bob. I'll try to stick to occasional saying hello here to old-timers here who seem interested in the market and making or preserving money rather than those who seem to be carrying out a long term jihad against Bob and I apologize in advance to Jihadists.