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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (5285)	6/24/2010 4:21:14 PM
From: Kirk ©	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Interesting Marc. Were you aware Brinker went to 100% cash right after being fully invested for the 1987 bear market? Or that he didn't return to fully invested until Jan 1991? See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History "So I'd recommend everything in Bob's letter to others for whom it's appropriate..." Why not recommend an index fund? Rande Spiegelman, now a VP at Schwab, got kicked off Brinker's web site in 2000 right after he pointed out Brinker's P3 under performed a simple, free 50:50 benchmark by about 2% a year... I believe that benchmark was half in Wilshire5000 and half in some aggregate bond portfolio similar to Vanguard's Total Bond Fund. I've been recommending that in my free articles back to the 1990s... This is what Mark Hulbert says in "Mark Hulbert on Bob Brinker's Marketimer Performance Record" "Brinker’s fund selections on average have lagged the market. The HFD reports an 8.7% annualized gain for his “Aggressive” portfolio, which is 0.6 percentage points per year less than what this portfolio would have made if each of its funds were invested in the DJ Wilshire 5000 during the times they were owned.” "Please note: In late 2000, Brinker forecasted a several-month bear market rally and recommended an investment in the NASDAQ 100 Index—a trade that turned out quite unprofitably. However, because Brinker at the time of making this forecast chose not to make this trade part of his model portfolios, his HFD record has not suffered as a result." BTW, Hulbert is misleading readers. Brinker did not say it would not be in the model portfolios until it was clear the QQQs did not rally. Hulbert himself ADMITS he bought the QQQ for his tracking then sold them later despite Brinker telling readers in the newsletter to hold. So I guess I still don't see why you recommend someone who really doesn't do better than simple index funds. You should see all the letters I get from people who are upset, former subscribers who are not happy with his honesty.