To: ahhaha who wrote (57014 ) 6/25/2010 2:43:02 PM From: Winfastorlose 1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206760 Gold has risen because gold miners went through a 20 year long bear market which impaired their ability to supply. Meanwhile jewelry demand grew with world GDP. Price had to rise to repair gold miner's ability to supply. The repair is finished and gold is putting in a major top. In any event you must explain why gold fell like it did during a financial crisis where it should have shined. There's only one explanation outside of the jail reason. Gold has risen to balance total supply and total demand, a process which has already completed. Concerning the price and the demand for Gold-- Gold has risen due to increased investment demand, not an increase in jewelry demand . Jewelry demand in all areas outside of China and Vietnam has been off as the price of the metal ratcheted through 800. (jewelry demand even off in India which has traditionally bought a lions share of the metal for use in jewelry. Gold has also gotten a boost the last three years from Central Bank buying in India, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and a handful of smaller countries. India's central bank recently bought approx. 200 tonnes of the metal from the IMF at 1050 per ounce in 2009 and the Russian central bank has bought over 100 tonnes of the metal in the last two years. In fact, this is the first period we have seen significant central bank buying of gold of any sort in approx 20 years. For the prior period of approx 20 years, central banks were large net sellers of gold. Also, the Chinese recently lifted investment limits on their own people and actually advised them to buy gold as a way of saving money which would not be as subject to real purchasing power losses due to inflation. Gold production has fallen in South Africa and has been offset with increased production from China, which appears to be buying a large portion of its own production as has Russia. Finally, gold has experienced additional strength as the major miners dropped their hedge books and this has put the bullion banks under supply/demand stress. The Comex does its best to dissuade anyone from taking delivery and people who do take delivery have noticed that the numbers on the bars often do not match the numbers or the weights on their assay certificates. The paper gold market is under a severe demand stress and the ETFs have resorted to taking derivatives contracts as opposed to laying any physical claim on the metal itself. Mints such as South Africa's the USA's Canada's and Australia's are all running at full capacity to meet the demand for physical delivery through coins. The USA has even suspended the production of its gold eagles and buffalos on a few occasions because they could not get enough of the sheets from which the coins are cut. (supposedly) Canada has always met demand however. All of the above listed things, rather than any increase in jewelry demand, have contributed to the increase in the price of gold and suggest that the metal could easily continue its bull run for some time to come and are hardly significant of any kind of a top. That is why every time any pundit like a Prechter has called a top in the price of gold for the last few years they have come off looking like a buffoon.