To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (86837 ) 6/30/2010 11:57:03 AM From: TideGlider 1 Recommendation Respond to of 224729 Election 2010: Missouri Senate Missouri Senate: Blunt (R) 48%, Carnahan (D) 43% Wednesday, June 30, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement Missouri’s Senate race remains on the same course it’s held for months, with Republican Congressman Roy Blunt posting a slight lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Missouri shows Blunt with 48% support, while Carnahan earns 43% of the vote. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. A month ago, the race appeared to tighten slightly. But Blunt’s support since September has remained in the range of 44% to 50%, while Carnahan’s in the same period has run from 41% to 46%. The Democrat has never led in the race. Blunt and Carnahan, both members of prominent Missouri political families, are expected to win their respective party primaries on August 3. The Republican posts a better than two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. Sixty-one percent (61%) in the Show Me State favor repeal of the recently passed health care law which Blunt voted against as a member of Congress. Thirty-five percent (35%) oppose repeal. These figures include 48% who Strongly Favor repeal of the measure and 28% who are Strongly Opposed. Missouri voters now oppose the new national health care bill more strongly than voters nationwide. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of voters who Strongly Favor repeal support Blunt, while 81% of the smaller group Strongly Opposed to repeal support Carnahan. (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. This survey of 500 Likely Voters in Missouri was conducted on June 28, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. Fifty-six percent (56%) of all voters in the state favor a tough immigration law like Arizona’s in Missouri, down six points from the previous survey but comparable to findings nationally. Twenty-nine percent (29%) oppose such a law. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided. Blunt earns 70% support from those who favor an Arizona-like law. Eighty-two percent (82%) of those who oppose a law like that support Carnahan. The Obama administration is expected to file a legal challenge of the Arizona law in federal court as early as this week, but just 22% of Missouri voters think that’s a good idea. Fifty-nine percent (59%) oppose such a challenge, slightly higher than voter sentiments nationally, and another 19% are undecided about it. Eighty-three percent (83%) of those who support a legal challenge of the Arizona law support Carnahan. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters who oppose the challenge favor Blunt. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Missouri voters consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement, compared to 16% nationwide. Fifty-four percent (54%) say they are not members, but 24% aren’t sure. Blunt has the support of 85% of Tea Party members and 50% of those who are not sure. Carnahan gets 61% of the vote from those who are not members. Overall, 43% of Missouri voters say the Tea Party movement is good for the country, while 27% view it as a bad thing. Carnahan has criticized Blunt for his political contributions from the oil industry as a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and sought to tie him to the unfolding oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. But 60% of Missouri voters support offshore drilling, and a plurality (49%) favor deepwater drilling, too. Both findings match voter views nationwide. Carnahan is viewed Very Favorably by 24% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 21%. Sixteen percent (16%) have a Very favorable opinion of Blunt, while 13% view him Very Unfavorably. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers. Little changed from the previous survey are voter attitudes toward President Obama, Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the job he is doing; 53% disapprove. This is in line with how voters nationally feel about the president’s job performance as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Sixty percent (60%) like the job Democratic Governor Jay Nixon is doing, but 37% disapprove. In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point. In Missouri, Rasmussen Reports polled on two races during the 2008 campaign. In the race for president, Rasmussen polling showed McCain and Obama tied at 49% each. McCain ended up edging out Obama 50% to 49%. In the 2008 Missouri governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Nixon defeating Kenny Hulshof 57% to 38% and Nixon won 58% to 40%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed a toss-up with Jim Talent at 49% and Claire McCaskill at 48%. McCaskill won 49% to 47%. In the 2004 Presidential race, Rasmussen polling in Missouri showed George W. Bush defeating John Kerry 50% to 45%. Bush won the state 53% to 46%. See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.